[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front is pushing across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
stretching from Florida Panhandle near 30N84W to the northern
Yucatan near 21N88W. Gales have developed ahead of this front,
with scatterometer showing southeasterly gale force winds from
28N- 29N between 83W- 85W. Seas will range from 12 to 16 ft.
Westerly gale force winds are noted behind the front from 28N-
30N between 87W- 88W. These gales will continue through 07/1200
UTC.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front will enter the western Atlantic tonight. Southerly
gale force winds have developed ahead of the front from 28N-31N
between 77W-80W. As the front pushes farther in the basin, gale
force force winds will continue on both sides of the front from
28N-31N between 68W-80W. Seas will range from 10 to 15 ft. This is
expected to last through until 08/0000 UTC.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details on the three special features listed below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from 00N22W to 02S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
ITCZ and monsoon trough from 02S-05N between 15W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 07/0300 UTC, the cold front stretches from the Florida
Panhandle near 30N83W to the northern Yucatan near 22N88W. A small
secondary cold front is in the western Florida Panhandle entering
a small portion of the NE Gulf. A squall line producing frequent
lightning and gusty winds is noted across central Florida and the
SE Gulf, from 24N-28N between 82W-85W. High pressure is building
across the western Gulf, anchored by a 1013 mb high near 25N97W.

The latest scatterometer data depicts southeasterly gale force
winds from 28N-31N between 77W-80W. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are seen across the SE Gulf ahead of the front. Westerly
gale force winds are noted from 28N- 30N between 87W-88W.
Elsewhere, strong to near gale-force winds are noted across the NW
Gulf eastward to the cold front. Moderate winds are seen near the
high. Seas are currently ranging between 12 to 15 ft near the
westerly gale force winds. Elsewhere, seas range 6 to 8 ft across
the central and western Gulf, with seas up to 3 ft near the Texas
coastline.

The cold front will have moved SE of the Gulf by late Fri morning.
Behind the front, NW gales will prevail through tonight N of 27N
and E of 89W, with seas as high as 16 ft. Elsewhere, expect fresh
to strong winds and building seas across the Gulf region on either
side of the front. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E Fri
into the weekend as high pressure moves northeastward across the
Gulf. Another cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast
on Sat, then stall and dissipate near the northern Gulf coast Sun
into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure continues to dominate the Caribbean and inhibit
deep convection. However, showers are moving across the Greater
and Lesser Antilles. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong
trades north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong to
near gale force southerly winds are off the eastern coast of
Honduras, with strong southerly winds between Honduras and western
Cuba. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the eastern Caribbean
with gentle winds in the SW basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
are ranging from 3 to 6 ft, with seas up to 9 ft north of
Colombia.

High pressure centered in the central Atlantic will shift
eastward into the weekend, allowing a cold front to enter the NW
Caribbean. This front will stall and dissipate over the weekend.
High pressure building again north of the area in the wake of the
front will support winds to gale force off Colombia, mainly at
night, starting late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 mb broad high near 30N42W remains in control across most
of the Atlantic. The north-end of the squall line over the Gulf is
seen in the extreme NW Atlantic waters from 29N-33N between 79W-
81W. The cold front remains over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico
for now.

The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near-gale force
winds N of 27N and W of 73W. Seas are ranging from 12 to 15 ft in
the western Atlantic. Under the high, seas are 4 to 6 ft.

High pressure has an axis that extends into the Bahamas this
evening. This ridge will weaken and move east through the
remainder of the week, allowing a cold front to move off the FL
coast late tonight. This front should reach the Bahamas late Fri,
then stall and dissipate over the weekend. Ahead of this front, S
and SW gales will prevail into Fri afternoon N of the Bahamas.
Behind the front, W gales can be expected through Fri.

$$
AKR
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