[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1235 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front is pushing across the west-central Gulf of Mexico,
stretching from central Louisiana to the coast of Mexico near
21N97W. As the cold front enters the eastern Gulf, gale force SW
winds will develop ahead of the boundary Thursday evening, 07/0000
UTC N of 26N and E of 85W. This will last through 07/0300 UTC.
Seas will range from 10 to 15 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic on Thursday
night. Southerly gale force winds will develop ahead of this front
by Thursday evening, 07/0000 UTC. As the front pushes across this
part of the basin, gale force force winds will continue ahead of
the front through Friday afternoon, 07/1800 UTC. These gale force
winds are expected to occur from 28N-31N between 72W-80W. Seas
will build to 12 to 18 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details on the three special features listed below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N33W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
ITCZ from 01S-04N between 19W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough continues to dig across the U.S. southern
Plains as it moves east. At the surface, a cold front extends off
the central Louisiana coast near 29N92W to 25N94W to the coast of
Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across
the western and central Gulf coast, from 24N-30N between 89W-97W.
Surface ridging extends across the eastern Gulf with fair weather
prevailing.

The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong SE winds
ahead of the front with moderate to fresh NW winds behind the
front. Seas are ranging from 5 to 7 ft.

The cold front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan
Channel Thu night, then pass southeast of the basin on Fri. Gale
force winds are likely ahead and behind the front over the north
waters E of 90W Thu and Thu night. Seas are forecast to build to
14 or 15 ft. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong winds and building
seas across the Gulf region on either side of the front. Winds and
seas will diminish from W to E Fri into the weekend as high
pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf. Another cold front
is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Sat, then stall near
the northern Gulf coast by Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level ridging continues to cover the Caribbean.
Scattered showers are seen moving across the Greater and Lesser
Antilles in addition to areas across the northwest Caribbean.
However, the subsidence from the ridging is inhibiting deep
convection.

The latest scatterometer data depicts easterly near-gale force
winds north of Colombia with strong trades across the central
basin in addition to the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, fresh
trades are seen in the eastern and parts of the western Caribbean.
Seas are ranging 6 to 8 feet across the Caribbean, with seas
building to 12 feet north of Colombia and 9 feet in the Gulf of
Honduras.

Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south-central
Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Winds will pulse to near
gale force off Colombia tonight. Expect fresh to strong southerly
winds across the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel,
through Thu night ahead of a cold front that will move across the
Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel
early Fri, then stall and dissipate from western Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras Fri night. Elsewhere, expect increasing trade winds
and building seas over the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N
Atlantic waters by Thu as high pressure dominates north of the
area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb broad high remains in control across the western and
central portion of the Atlantic. Further east, a cold front
passes through 31N28W to 26N35W to 22N44W. Isolated showers are
possible along the front. The latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong southerly winds in the western Atlantic, N of 28N
between 78W-80W. Seas are generally 2 to 4 feet.

A ridge dominates the forecast waters. Southerly flow will
strengthen north of the Bahamas tonight through Thu night, ahead
of a strong cold front that will move off the coast of Florida
late Thu night into Fri. Gale force winds are expected on either
side of the front north of 29N Thu night and Fri. The front will
reach from 31N73W to western Cuba on Fri, then stall from just
east of Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning through Sun
morning. The front is expected to lift northward on Sun and
gradually dissipate through Mon.

$$
AKR
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