[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front currently entering the Gulf of Mexico from the Texas
coast will move eastward. Gale force SW winds are forecast to
develop just ahead of the front on Thursday over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico from 26N-29N between 84W-88W. The gales is forecast to
persist through Thursday evening. Expect sea heights ranging from
12 to 15 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front will cross northern Florida Thursday night.
Prior to the frontal passage, gale force SW winds are expected
east of northern Florida, north of 29N between 73W-81W, beginning
Thursday evening and lasting through Friday morning. Expect sea
heights of 12 to 18 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details on the three special features listed below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
inside the area bounded by 05N25W to 01N47W to 07S39W to 02S30W to
02N20W to 05N25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large mid- to upper-level trough digging down over New Mexico,
west Texas and northwestern Mexico is supporting a cold front
over the western Gulf of Mexico. The cold front extends from near
29N93W to a 1005 mb low just north of Tampico Mexico and continues
westward inland into Mexico. Most of the western Gulf of Mexico
is under broken to overcast conditions west of 90W, with scattered
showers and moderate convection seen ahead and behind the front.
Observations across the NW Gulf of Mexico show areas of areas of
low visibility with fog present and low stratus clouds.

The cold front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico
tonight, from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Channel Thu night,
then pass southeast of the basin on Fri. Gale force SW winds are
likely ahead of the front over the NE Gulf on Thu, with strong to
near gale force westerly winds expected Thu night into Fri behind
the front. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong winds and building
seas across the Gulf on either side of the front. Winds and seas
will diminish late Fri into the weekend as high pressure moves
northeastward across the Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak front may
stall near the northern Gulf coast Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level ridging covers the Caribbean Sea, leading to
dry air elsewhere over the basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean south of 17N between
71W-79W, with near gales near the coast of Colombia. A 1009 mb low
pressure is seen near the western coast of Colombia near 09N76W.

Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south-central
Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Winds will pulse to near
gale force off Colombia tonight. Expect fresh to strong southerly
winds across the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel,
through Thu night ahead of a cold front that will move across the
Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel
early Fri, then stall and dissipate from western Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras Fri night. Elsewhere, expect increasing trade winds
and building seas over the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N
Atlantic waters by Thu as high pressure dominates north of the
area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb broad high remains in control across the western and
central portion of the basin. Further east, a cold front passes
through 31N27W to 24N39W to 21N48W, then dissipates to 21N47W. A
surface trough continues from 21N47W to 19N60W. Isolated showers
are possible along the front and trough.

A ridge will persist along 28N into tonight. Southerly flow will
strengthen north of the Bahamas later tonight through Thu, ahead
of a strong cold front that will move off the coast of Florida Thu
night and across the offshore waters Fri and Fri night. Gale force
southerly winds are expected ahead of the front north of 29N Thu
night into Fri, with westerly gales possible over the Gulf Stream
on Fri following frontal passage. The front will stall from just
east of Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning, then weaken
over the northern waters Sat night into Sun.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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