[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
05N22W to 05N35W to 04N46W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 nm of the axes between 16W-22W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N-09N between
28W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1032 mb high pressure is over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast.
Broad surface ridging extends south-southwestward to the NE Gulf
of Mexico. A 1015 mb low is over NE Mexico near 25N99W. A cold
front over central Texas is moving east. Scattered showers are
off the coast of S Texas, west of 96W from 25N-28N. Moderate E
winds cover much of the eastern Gulf. Fresh to locally strong SE
winds are seen over the northwest and west-central Gulf.

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon as the low pres over NE Mexico moves
northeastward and the cold front over Texas approaches the Gulf.
A few of these storms could be strong. The storms will migrate
eastward, south of the Louisiana coast this evening.

The cold front will move into the NW Gulf late this afternoon,
reach from the central Gulf Coast to the western Bay of Campeche
on Sun, and from southwest Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on
Mon. The cold front will exit the basin by Mon night. Fresh SE
winds are expected in the NW Gulf ahead of a strong cold front
approaching the region on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N79W to the
Isle of Youth near 22N83W. Isolated showers are possible along
and north of the frontal boundary. Mid to upper-level ridging
covers the Caribbean Sea, west of 65W. As a result, subsidence
and relatively dry air is present, with little to no significant
precipitation noted across the basin. A recent ASCAT pass shows
strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, south of 14N
between 73W-78W, with near gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia from 10.5N-12N between 74W-76.5W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in
this area. Locally strong winds are also seen south of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage. Fresh NE-E winds cover the remainder
of the central and western Caribbean west of 69W, while moderate
trades prevail over the E Caribbean.

The stationary front across the NW Caribbean will gradually
dissipate through tonight. High pressure north of the area will
support fresh NE trade winds across much of the area through Wed.
Highest winds and seas will continue to be in the southern
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia, through Wed. A cold front
will slide southward into the NW Caribbean Tue and will stall
across the region by Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N53W to 27N60W to 24N70W to the
Bahamas near 23N75W, where it transitions to a stationary front
that continues to central Cuba near 22N79W. Scattered moderate
rain showers are along and within 120 nm SE of the front, east of
59W and north of 26N. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere
along and within 120 nm N of the front. Strong SW winds extend
east of the front, north of 30N between the front and 47W. High
pressure is building in over the western Atlantic behind the
front. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh
anti-cyclonic wind flow across much of the western Atlantic north
of the front, between 60W and the east coast of Florida. Seas of
7 to 9 ft prevail north of 27N between the front and 75W.

Surface ridging prevails over the east Atlantic, anchored by a
1026 mb high pressure centered near 30N27W. A surface ridge axis,
with gentle wind speeds near it, extends from the high to 26N47W
to 24N62W. Fresh to strong trade winds cover the E Atlantic from
07N-24N between 43W and the west coast of Africa.

The tail end of the front, from the Bahamas to Cuba, is expected
to slowly dissipate on Sun with the cold front continuing to push
eastward and dissipating by Mon. Another cold front will move
off the Florida coast on Mon, reach the southern Bahamas and
eastern Cuba by Tue, and continue moving eastward on Wed.

$$
Hagen
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