[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to
04N20W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 02N to 04N between 12W and 20W, and from 04N to
08N between 25W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge extends from Panama, through the Yucatan
Channel, to the Florida Panhandle. Upper level SW wind flow
spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
north central Gulf of Mexico, to 19N96W at the coast of Mexico
in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

The high pressure ridge will shift eastward today. A cold front
will move into the NW Gulf tonight, reach from the central Gulf
Coast to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday, and from central Florida
to the Yucatan peninsula on Monday, then exit the basin Tuesday.
A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from Panama across the Yucatan
Channel, to the Florida Panhandle. Broad upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the Caribbean Sea.

A stationary front reaches from central Cuba near 22N79W, across
the NW part of the Caribbean Sea, to northern Belize. Isolated
showers are occurring along the frontal boundary.

The monsoon trough extends northeast from the eastern Pacific
Ocean into northern Colombia. Zonal wind flow prevails elsewhere
across the basin. No significant areas of organized convection
are apparent from satellite imagery.

The stationary front across the NW Caribbean will gradually
dissipate through tonight. High pressure north of the area will
support fresh NE trade winds across much of the area through
Sunday. Highest winds and seas will continue to be in the
southern Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N58W to 30N60W to 25N70W to the
coast of central Cuba near 22N79W. A pre-frontal trough is
analyzed from 30N58W to 22N71W. Broken to overcast multi-layered
clouds and isolated rain showers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on
either side of the front northeast of the Bahamas, and within
150 nm NW of the front west of the Bahamas.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 29N31W. A broad surface
ridge anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N
northward east of the cold front eastward.

The cold front will become stationary from 24N65W to the
southern Bahamas tonight, then slowly dissipate on Sunday.
Another cold front will move off the Florida coast on Monday,
reach the southern Bahamas and southern Cuba by Tuesday, then
weaken on Wednesday.

$$
Mundell
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