[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Dec 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal areas of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N20W, where latest scatterometer
data shows that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
03N30W and to 02N41W. Scattered moderate convection is within
360 nm south the trough axis between the coast of Africa and 14W
and within 210 nm south of the trough axis between 15W-19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong upper-level subsidence aloft and very dry stable conditions
are in place over the Gulf. At the surface...a 1022 mb high
pressure centered is located near 25N89W, with associated high
broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spanning the entire Gulf.
Latest ASCAT data generally shows light to gentle anticyclonic
flow over the the basin along with seas of 3 ft or less.

As for the forecast: the high pressure will shift eastward
through Friday. Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf
of Mexico tonight through Sat. A strong cold front will move into
the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun night, and extend from central Florida
to southern Mexico on Mon. Strong northerly winds are expected
north of the front, with possible gale force winds along the
western Gulf coast near the coast of Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front stretches from the Atlantic
southwestward to the eastern part of Hispaniola and to near
15N78W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, with possible
scattered showers are within 250 nm to the northwest of the front
including the vast majority of Hispaniola.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 73W across northern
Colombia and Panama. Isolated showers are south of 12N and west
of 72W into the countries of Central America.

Patches of low-level moisture advecting westward, with possible
isolated showers are noted over the eastern and central Caribbean
mainly north of 15N.

As for the forecast: The front will dissipate by late this
afternoon. Fresh northerly winds northwest of the front, as were
evident in an 1452Z will gradually diminish into Fri morning.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse overnight near the coast of
Colombia through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near 32N53W to 29N56W, where it
transitions to a cold front to the eastern part of Hispaniola.
This cold front is being driven by a broad upper-level troughing
that covers the area north of about 24N and west of the front to
near 58W. The combination of low-level forcing created by the
front along with upper-level dynamics from the upper-level trough
is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms along and
within 120 nm east and southeast of the front north of 25N.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within
90 nm east of the front from 21N-25N. The cold front will become
stationary and weaken today.

An upper-level low is identified to be near 19N46W, with a trough
southwestward to near 13N49W and to near 06N55W. At the surface,
a trough is along a position from 19N45W to 13N48W. Latest
satellite imagery shows an area of scattered moderate convection
from 14N to 24N between 40W-44W and also from 15N to 20N between
44W-50W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen elsewhere from 14N-21N between 38W-51W. The tail-end of
the upper-level trough, in combination with low-level easterly
moisture, is helping to trigger off scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms roughly from just inland the coast of Suriname as
well as over northern French Guiana northward to 12N and between
50W-56W. The upper-level low is forecast to lift northward
through Fri and become absorbed by the aforementioned broad upper-
level trough late Fri night. High pressure will build eastward
across the forecast area through Fri.

Over the eastern section of the area, a 1033 mb high center is
located north of the area near 33N27W, with a ridge extending
southwestward to near 29N44W and to near 27N55W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward, east of the cold front.  A cold front will move east
of northern Florida on Mon.

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net