[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Dec 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to
02N25W to 02N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 01N to 06N between 08W and 17W. Isolated moderate
is from 09N southward between 17W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level W wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1022 mb
high pressure is centered near 25N90W. High pressure has settled
into the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.

THe high pressure will shift eastward through Friday. Southerly
winds will increase in the western Gulf of Mexico tonight
through Saturday. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf
of Mexico Sunday night, and extend from central Florida to
southern Mexico on Monday. Strong northerly winds are expected
north of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front passes from the Atlantic Ocean to
19N70W in the Dominican Republic, curving to 15N77W, and to
09N82W in Panama. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and
scattered showers are within 250 nm to the NW of the front.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 73W in N Colombia and
Panama. Isolated showers are south of 12N and west of 72W into
the countries of Central America.

The front across the Caribbean will stall and weaken today.
Fresh northerly winds northwest of the front will gradually
diminish through Friday morning. Fresh to strong winds are
expected near the coast of Colombia through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32n54w to 28N60W, to the Dominican
Republic near 19N69W. Scattered moderate showers are within 180
nm on either side of the front north of 24N. Broken to overcast
multi-layered clouds scattered showers are elsewhere within 250
nm of the front.

A surface trough is along 18N44W to 10N46W. Scattered moderate
convection associated with the trough is from 12N to 21N between
38W and 50W. Another surface trough is from 09N49W to 06N57W at
the border of Guyana and Suriname, with isolated showers near
the trough axis.

A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high pressure center near
34N27W to 26N52W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, east of the cold front.

The cold front will stall and weaken today. High pressure will
build eastward across the forecast area through Friday. A cold
front will move east of northern Florida on Monday.

$$
Mundell
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