[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W, to
02N25W. The ITCZ continues along 01N/02N between 25W and 44W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters is from
01N to 06N between 09W and 16W. Isolated moderate to  locally
strong is from 09N southward between 16W and 354W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level W wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 24N93W. High pressure has
settled into the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure near 24N93W will shift eastward through Friday.
Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf of Mexico from
Thursday night through Saturday. A strong cold front will move
into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night. The front will
extend from central Florida to southern Mexico on Monday. Strong
northerly winds are expected to the north of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to 19N70W in the
Dominican Republic, curving to 15N77W, and to 09N82W in Panama.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are within 250 nm to the NW of the cold front.

A surface trough extends from 18N84W to 21N86W just off the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: no significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 73W in N Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 72W westward to the
coasts of the countries of Central America.

The current cold front, from Hispaniola to the coast of northern
Panama, will stall and weaken across the western Caribbean Sea
on Thursday. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to the
west of the front, through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N55W to 28N60W, to the Dominican
Republic near 19N70W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 120 nm to the E and SE of the cold front from
24N northward, and within 180 nm to the W and NW of the cold
front from 29N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are elsewhere within 250 nm to the W
and NW of the cold front, and from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to
24N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 57W and the cold front.

A surface ridge extends from a 1033 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N27W, to 30N36W, to 29N43W, to 25N52W, toward Puerto
Rico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from the cold front eastward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 03N northward between 35W and 60W. One surface trough is
along 17N44W 10N46W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong is from 10N to 23N between 30W and
50W. A second surface trough is along 09N49W 06N57W at the
border of Guyana and Suriname. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 10N southward between 50W and 60W.

The current cold front, extending from 23N65W to Hispaniola,
will stall and weaken on Thursday. High pressure will build
eastward across the forecast area on Thursday and Friday. A
strong cold front will move to the east of northern Florida on
Monday.

$$
mt/dm
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