[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092253
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Dec 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N40W to
the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-08N between 13W-20W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered in the western Gulf near 21N95W.
Latest buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data
indicate light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire
Gulf of Mexico, except for moderate N winds near the Yucatan
Channel. No significant shower activity is observed.

This high will shift eastward through Fri. Southerly winds will increase in the
western Gulf Thu night through Sat. A cold front will move into
the NW Gulf on Sun, then extend from Mississippi to southern
Mexico Sun night. Gale force winds are possible west of the
front along the coast of Mexico Sun night into Mon and fresh to
strong northerly winds elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front stretches from southern Haiti, to south of Jamaica
to the coast of northern Costa Rica. Strong northerly winds are
west of the front from Jamaica to Nicaragua and in the Windward
Passage. Fresh north winds are elsewhere in the NW Caribbean
behind the front along with seas of 6-9 ft, with the highest seas
off Nicaragua. Dry air prevails over the whole basin, along with
gentle to moderate trade winds and no significant shower activity.

For the forecast, the cold front will extend from Hispaniola to central Panama
tonight, then stall and weaken across the western Caribbean on
Thu. Strong northerly winds are expected west of the front today
through Thu. Fresh NE to E winds will prevail in the NW and
eastern Caribbean through early next week, with stronger pulses
mainly at night off Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to the north coast of the
Dominican Republic, and into the Caribbean Sea. Isolated
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front north of 28N and
from 22N to 26N. Fresh to locally strong S-SW winds are present
within 120 nm southeast of the front, north of 26N. Seas are
estimated to be 8 to 10 ft west of the front to 70W. The front
will stall through late Fri from 31N50W to the Windward Passage.
High pressure will move eastward off the Carolinas in the wake of
the front. This will support generally moderate E winds east of
65W through Sat, with 5 to 7 ft seas in northerly swell except 3
to 5 ft west of 70W. Looking ahead, another front will move off
the northeast Florida coast by late Sun into early Mon, followed
by strong NW winds. The front will reach from Bermuda to eastern
Cuba by Mon night.

Farther east, a surface trough is analyzed along 45W south of
20N, with high pressure dominating the remainder of the
subtropical and tropical North Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted east of 45W, with 5 to 7 ft
seas elsewhere east of 65W.

$$
Christensen
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