[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Dec 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N14W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N40W to the
coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-08N between
13W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high is centered in the western Gulf near 23N96W.
Gentle anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico
with no significant shower activity. Moderate to fresh north
winds cover the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits. This high
will shift eastward through Fri. Southerly winds will increase in
the western Gulf Thu night through Sat. A cold front will move
into the NW Gulf on Sun, then extend from Mississippi to southern
Mexico Sun night. Gale force winds are possible west of the front
along the coast of Mexico Sun night into Mon with fresh to strong
northerly winds elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front stretches from northern Haiti across the eastern tip
of Jamaica to the coast of Costa Rica. Strong northerly winds are
west of the front along the coast of Nicaragua and in the
Windward Passage. Fresh north winds are elsewhere in the NW
Caribbean behind the front along with seas of 6-9 ft. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm northwest of the front. Scattered
showers are seen near Panama associated with the east Pacific
monsoon trough. Drier air prevails over the eastern Caribbean
Sea, along with gentle to moderate trade winds.

For the forecast, the cold front will extend from Hispaniola to
western Panama tonight, then stall and weaken on Thu. Strong
northerly winds are expected west of the front today. Fresh NE
winds will prevail elsewhere in the NW Caribbean through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to the north coast of Haiti, and
into the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate convection is within 60
nm of the front. Fresh to locally strong S-SW winds are present
within 180 nm southeast of the front, north of 27N. ASCAT shows
moderate wind speeds elsewhere over the western Atlantic between
Florida and the front. Seas of 7-11 ft are present near and west
of the front, mainly north of 26N. The cold front will stall and
weaken from 30N55W to the Dominican Republic on Thu. High
pressure will build eastward across the western Atlantic Thu and
Fri.

Farther east, a 1033 mb high located south of the Azores extends
surface ridging across most of the eastern Atlantic. An upper
level low is near 17N45W with an upper level trough extending
northeastward. A surface trough extends from 16N42W to 08N45W.
Scattered showers are present near and east of these features
from 10N-23N between 20W-47W.

$$
Mora/Hagen
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