[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 05N22W to 06N33W to
05N44W. One surface trough is along 16N41W to 07N45W. A second
surface trough is along 49W from 02N to 09N. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 10W and 35W. Isolated
showers embedded in multi-layered clouds are evident elsewhere
from 19N southward and 56W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure 1026 mb is centered near 25N94.5W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow and no significant shower activity spans
the entire Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure in the western Gulf will shift eastward through
Friday. Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf Thursday
night through Saturday. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf
on Sunday, then extend from Mississippi to southern Mexico Sunday
night. Gale force winds are possible west of the front along the
coast of Mexico Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes from northern Haiti, across eastern Jamaica to
15N81W and southward to 11N83W near the border between Nicaragua
and Costa Rica. Strong northerly winds are west of the front along
the coast of Nicaragua. Scattered moderate showers associated with
the front are within 180 nm northwest and west of the front.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 73W in northern Colombia
to beyond Costa Rica. Isolated convection is from 11N southward
and 72W westward to the coast of Central America.

The cold front will extend from Hispaniola to western Panama
tonight, then stall and weaken across the western Caribbean on
Thursday. Strong northerly winds are expected to continue west of
the front today. Fresh NE winds will prevail elsewhere in the NW
Caribbean through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N57W to 20N72W in northern Haiti,
and into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate showers are within
90 nm either side of the frontal boundary. A surface ridge extends
southwestward from 1033 mb high pressure centered near 35N28W to
the Virgin Islands. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward east of the cold front.

The cold front will stall and weaken from 23N65W to the Dominican
Republic on Thu. High pressure will build eastward across the
forecast area Thu and Fri.

$$
Mundell
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