[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front stretches across the
western Atlantic from 32N63W to 24N70W. Gale force S-SW winds are
along and within 120 nm east of the front, north of 29N. Seas in
the area are 12-16 ft. Gales associated with the front will end
this evening as the front continues eastward. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes over the border of Guinea and Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to
06N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ
from 05N-11N between 19W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to prevail across the Gulf. As a result, there
is no significant convection ongoing in the basin. Fresh north
winds cover the eastern Gulf east of 88W, where seas are 5-7 ft.
Moderate north winds are in the SW Gulf with gentle winds in the
NW Gulf.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds over the eastern half of the
basin will gradually diminish tonight. Surface ridging will
prevail through Thu with light to gentle variable winds. Moderate
to fresh return flow will establish over the western half of the
basin Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the NW Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.
Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the front. Fresh north winds
extend across most of the NW Caribbean, northwest of the front.
Seas are 5-8 ft in the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted
in the SW Caribbean, mainly south of 11N associated with the
monsoon trough.

The cold front will extend from the Windward Passage to northern
Costa Rica this evening with strong to near gale force N winds
affecting the E Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica adjacent
waters through Thu. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also
expected in the Windward Passage Wed night through Fri.
Otherwise, moderate trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
will pulse at nighttime to fresh to strong along the coast of
Colombia from Wed night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC a cold front extends from 32N63W to 24N70W to
eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is along and within
90 nm east of the front, north of 23N and east of 70W. The latest
ASCAT pass shows gale force S-SW winds along and within 120 nm
east of the front north of 29N. Please see the Special Features
section above for details on the Gale Warning. Behind the front,
strong to near gale force W-NW winds are north of 27N between the
front and 74W. Elsewhere from Cuba to 32N between the front and
Florida, fresh northwest winds are noted. An upper level trough
axis extends from 30N36W to 20N42W to 14N51W. Scattered moderate
showers extend near and east of the trough axis from 11N-27N
between 23W-45W. A 1033 mb high centered just south of the Azores
is producing surface ridging across most of the eastern Atlantic.

Strong to gale force winds in the forecast waters NE of the
Bahamas associated with the cold front will shift E of 65W late
this afternoon, and seas associated with the passage of the front
will subside by Wed. A reinforcing cold front will extend along
the waters northeast of the NW Bahamas on Fri and dissipate Fri
night. A third cold front will enter the waters east of northern
Florida Sat night.

$$
Mora/Hagen
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