[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front stretches across the
western Atlantic from 31N69W to the central Bahamas to central
Cuba coast near 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along and within 90 nm east of the front. A surface trough trails
behind the front from 30N73W to 23N80W. Gale winds are ongoing
ahead of the front, N of 27N and W of 67W. Behind the front,
strong to near gale force W to NW winds are noted. Seas will build
to 12-16 ft by this morning, and these conditions will subside by
tonight. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
09N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 06N39W to the
coast of Brazil near 01N50W. A surface trough is north of the
ITCZ from 11N36W to 07N36W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along and north of the ITCZ and near the trough north of 06N
between 22W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to build across the Gulf behind the cold front
located in the western Atlantic and western Caribbean. This is
being anchored by a 1026 mb high near 26N97W. As a result, there
is no significant convection ongoing in the basin. Fresh to strong
NW winds are noted in the eastern Gulf, while gentle to moderate
N winds prevail over the central and western Gulf. Seas range 3-6
ft with upwards of 7 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche.

Surface ridging will prevail through Thu with light to gentle
variable winds. Moderate to fresh return flow will establish over
the western half of the basin Thu night ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends off the central Cuban coast near 21N79W to
NW Honduras near 16N86W. Behind the front, moderate N winds are
noted off the coast of Cuba and moderate to fresh N winds are
noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are within 100
nm of the front. Seas are 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean.

Scattered showers are noted in the SW Caribbean associated with
the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds are in the south-
central Caribbean especially north of Colombia. Otherwise, light
to gentle trades are observed across the rest of the basin with
seas 3-5 ft.

Moderate trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
will pulse at nighttime to fresh to strong along the coast of
Colombia from Wed night through Sat night. A cold front currently
extending across the west Caribbean is supporting fresh to
strong winds over the waters in the vicinity of
Honduras/Nicaragua coastlines. These winds and building seas
will affect the SW Caribbean through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh NE are expected in the Windward Passage Wed night through
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for details on Gale
Warning associated to the cold front stretching across the western
Atlantic. The latest scatterometer data depicts S gale-force
winds ahead of the front with W to NW strong to near-gale force
winds behind the front and trough. Seas are 9-11 ft near the
front.

In the central Atlantic, a mid-level low is centered near 21N42W
with a trough at the surface from 26N46W to 18N46W. A broad area
of scattered moderate convection from 06N-28N between 25W-45W.
Ridging stretches across the remainder of the basin anchored by a
high near the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted
mostly across the eastern Atlantic with light to gentle winds in
the central Atlantic. Seas range 5-10 ft in the central Atlantic.

Gale force winds and building seas will follow the cold front in
the western Atlantic as it traverses the northern forecast waters
W of 65W through late Tue morning. Winds and seas associated with
the passage of the front will subside by mid week.

$$
ERA
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