[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N15W to 06N35W. Another segment of the ITCZ
is from 05N41W to 04N51W. A westward moving surface trough is
along 38/39W from 04N-12N. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-11N between 21W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1017mb low near Mobile, Alabama to
23N92W. A stationary front continues to 18N93W. A prefrontal
surface trough is along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
from 18N-23N. Isolated showers and tstorms cover the eastern
Gulf of Mexico to the east of the cold front. Fresh SE winds
cover the eastern Gulf east of the front. Strong N winds
continue to impact the SW Gulf of Mexico.

The northern half of the cold front will move slowly E across
the Gulf. By Sat afternoon, the front will extend from the SW
Florida peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche. South of 25N,
the front will remain stationary while strong N to NW winds are
expected west of the front through this evening. The cold front
will weaken by Sat night. A new, stronger cold front will develop
near the Mexican coast late Sat, extend from Alabama to the Bay
of Campeche by Sun afternoon, and exit the SE Gulf Mon afternoon.
Near gale-force NW to N winds are expected west of the cold front
on Sun. A low pressure may develop along the front on Monday over
the eastern Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf by
Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the
Cayman Islands. Fresh east winds are north of the front over the
NW Caribbean. A surface trough is located over the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 16N-22N between 81W-88W including the Yucatan Channel. Fresh
trade winds cover the central Caribbean with strong winds north
of Colombia and seas of 6-9 ft. Seas are 4-7 ft over much of the
remainder of the basin.

The weakening stationary front from E Cuba to the Cayman Islands
is expected to dissipate later today. Fresh E winds and rough
seas will prevail north of the front through this afternoon. As
the Bermuda High retreats northeastward well north of these
waters, a reduced pressure gradient will weaken the E trades
across the Caribbean through Mon, with peak winds of fresh to
strong just north of Colombia. The next cold front should reach
the Yucatan Channel on Mon with winds and seas building in the
NW Caribbean on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1017 mb low pressure center near
31N57W to 26N61W, then continues as a stationary front to eastern
Cuba. Little to no significant precipitation is seen with the
front. A 1028 mb surface high near Bermuda extends ridging over
the area to the north of the front. Fresh NE to E winds are north
of the front. An upper level low is centered near 23N46W. Broad
deep layered troughing covers a majority of the central Atlantic.
Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-32N between 48W-54W
and from 12N-25N between 35W-46W. Fresh-strong east winds
generally prevail from 13N-32N between 35W-45W.

The stationary front from 24N65W to E Cuba will gradually
dissipate through Sat. Strong S to SW winds will develop east of
N Florida tonight ahead of a cold front. This cold front will
extend from 31N74W to central Florida on Sat afternoon, then
weaken from 29N65W to the central Bahamas on Sun afternoon. A
developing low pressure system will sweep a new, strong cold
front across the W Atlantic Mon night through Tue night, bringing
strong winds and rough seas to much of the area north of 25N
between Florida and 65W early next week.

$$

Mora/Hagen
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