[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N12W to 04N14W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N14W to 03N17W to 05N29W. Another segment of
the ITCZ is along 05N38W to 03N46W. A surface trough is along
12N35W to 02N36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 13N between 20W and 38W. Isolated showers
elsewhere from 14N southward and 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southward from a 1018 low in SE Louisiana
near 30N90W to 19N91W. Strong northerly winds are west of the
frontal boundary with seas 10-11 ft in the Bay of Campeche.
Widespread light to moderate embedded shower activity in multi-
layer cloudiness is east of the front.

The cold front will move slowly across the basin through
Saturday. Strong N to NW winds are expected to persist west of
the front through this evening. The front will weaken as it
exits the SE Gulf Saturday night. A surface trough will develop
near the Mexican coast Saturday night and drift east to along
94W south of 26N by early Sun. Strong to near gale force NW to N
winds are expected west of the trough through Sun. A deepening
upper level trough is expected to induce cyclogenesis in the SE
Gulf of Mexico on Monday, with a developing low pressure system
moving across Florida Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from the Windward Passage,
south of Cuba to the Cayman Islands. Widely scattered moderate
convection associated with the front is in the NW part of the
Caribbean Sea from 16N northward and Haiti westward. The monsoon
trough is along 10N from 73W in N Colombia to beyond Costa Rica.
Isolated showers are associated with the monsoon trough.

The stationary front is expected to dissipate later today. Fresh
easterly winds and seas to 7-8 ft will prevail north of the
front this morning. Fresh trade winds are expected across the
central Caribbean through Sat. Another cold front will reach the
Yucatan Channel on Monday, and move across the NW Caribbean on
Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1018 mb low pressure center near
31N57W to 26N61W, then continues as a stationary front to the
Windward Passage near 20N74W. Isolated showers are evident on
either side of the frontal boundary. Broad upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward between
40W and 60W. A surface trough curves from 30N53W to 25N50W to
17N48W. A second surface trough is along 46.5W from 08N to 16N.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N
to 22N between 38W and 46W. Broken to overcast multi-layered
clouds and isolated moderate showers are elsewhere from 14N to
27N between 40W and 53W.

The front will gradually dissipate through Saturday. Strong
southerly winds will develop east of northern Florida tonight. A
cold front will extend from 31N74W to central Florida on Sat,
then weaken from 29N65W to near Miami Florida on Sun. A low
pressure system emerging from the SE Gulf of Mexico on Monday
will sweep a strong cold front across the western Atlantic
Monday  night through Tuesday night. Strong W to NW winds and
building seas are expected west of this front early next week.

$$
Mundell
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