[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 04 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W, to
03N17W, 04N22W, to 05N29W. Another segment of the ITCZ is along
05N37W 03N45W. A surface trough is along 11N35W 02N37W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 06N to 13N within 540 nm to the east of the surface trough.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 14N southward from 50W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes through southern coastal sections of
Louisiana, to the NE sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are being experienced in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, on the eastern Pacific
Ocean side of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 200 nm to 400 nm
to the east of the cold front, from the NE corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula to 27N.

The current cold front, from central Louisiana to the Bay of
Campeche, will move slowly across the basin, through Saturday.
Strong N to NW winds are expected to the west of the front
through Friday evening. The front will weaken as it exits the SE
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night. A trough will develop near the
Mexican coast late on Saturday, and drift east to along 94W
south of 26N, by early Sunday. Strong to near gale-force NW to N
winds are expected to the west of the trough, through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea.

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to SE Cuba, to
19N84W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea from 16N northward from Haiti westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N from 73W in N Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 15N southward from 73W westward to the coast of
the countries of Central America.

The current weakening cold front, from the Windward Passage to
the Cayman Islands, is expected to dissipate on Friday. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas will prevail to the north of the
front into
Friday. Fresh trade winds are expected across the central
Caribbean Sea, through Saturday. another cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel on Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1018 mb low pressure center that is
near 31N58W, to 28N60W, to 22N70W, beyond SE Cuba, into the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 135 nm
to the east and southeast of the cold fron; and within 180 nm to
the west and northwest of the cold front.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 15N northward between 40W and 60W. One surface trough
curves from 30N53W to 25N50W to 17N48W. A second surface trough
is along 46W/47W from 10N to 16N. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 14N to 18N between 40W and
46W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated to
widely scattered moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 14N to
27N between 36W and 50W.

A surface trough is along 32N18W 25N31W. The trough remains from
the earlier low pressure center that was just to the west of
Africa. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the
northwest of the surface trough.

The current weakening cold front, from 25N65W to the Windward
Passage, will dissipate gradually on Friday and Saturday. Strong
S to SW winds will develop east of northern Florida Fri night. A
cold front will extend from 31N74W to central Florida on
Saturday, and then weaken from 29N65W to Miami Florida on
Sunday. A developing low pressure system will sweep a strong
cold front across the western Atlantic Ocean from Monday night
through Tuesday night.

$$
mt/dm
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