[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Dec 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The most recent scatterometer pass
provided observations of gale-force northerly winds behind a cold
front that currently stretches from the coast of south-central
Louisiana to near Veracruz Mexico. These strong to gale force NW
winds in the western Gulf will persist from 23N to offshore
Veracruz through this evening, with strong winds continuing
through Fri evening. The slow moving cold front will reach from
the Florida Panhandle to the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
Fri night, then weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Sat night. Please,
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra
Leone/Guinea border and extends to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N20W to 06N30W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near
01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near a surface
trough analyzed from 11N32W to 06N35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters followed by strong
to gale-force northerly winds. Please, refer to the Special
Features section for more details.

A weak 1018 mb low pressure is analyzed near SE Louisiana. A
cold front extends from the low center to the central Bay of
Campeche. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted per
scatterometer data on the SE quadrant of the low forecast to
dissipate on Fri. Low-level clouds are noted behind the front and
are banked up along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre
Mountains in Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
observed ahead of the frontal boundary over the central Gulf.

As the cold front moves SE of the area by Sat night, a coastal
trough is forecast to develop near the Mexican coast late Sat and
drift E to along 94W south of 26N early Sun. Strong to near gale
force NW to N winds are expected west of the trough through Sun
as it drifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The stationary front in the NW Caribbean extends from eastern
Cuba through the Cayman Islands to the Yucatan Peninsula near
19N87W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the wake of the
front forecast to weaken tonight and dissipate on Fri. Abundant
cloudiness, with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms is
observed just south of the front roughly across the waters between
Jamaica and NE Honduras. Similar activity is noted over the SW
Caribbean close to the coast of Nicaragua. Shallow moisture
embedded in the trade winds flow is noted over the eastern part
of the basin.

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail NW of this
front into Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also occur through Fri
across the south-central Caribbean as high pressure moves E into
the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, another cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel on Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N60W and continues
SW to near 25N65W where it becomes stationary to eastern Cuba.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are behind the front mainly S of 27N.
A band of mainly broken low clouds with isolated showers is
associated with the front, forecast to gradually dissipate on
Fri. Strong S to SW winds will develop off the NE Florida coast,
by Sat evening in advance of the next cold front. This feature
will extend from 31N77W to north-central Florida early Sat, then
weaken from 31N65W to 25N71W to the SE Bahamas early Sun.
Another significant cold front will sweep across the western
Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, with strong winds ahead of the
front.

Farther E, and area of showers and thunderstorms is over the
Central Atlantic, covering roughly the area from 15N-22N between
40W-46W. This convective activity is the result of a mid-upper
level low spinning near 21N47W. At the surface, a trough, reflection
of this low, extends from 28N52W to 20N47W. Fresh to strong winds
and seas of 8-10 ft are on the E side of the trough axis due to
the pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure
located well N of the area.

The low pressure system previously situated between the Madeira
Islands and the Azores is weakening and now is located NW of the
Canary Islands near 30N21W producing only a few showers. This low
will move SE and dissipate on Fri. Then, a ridge will dominate
most of the east and central Atlantic by Fri.

$$
GR
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