[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES.

Satellite and radar images indicate that an area of low pressure
is developing a couple of hundred miles east of Jacksonville,
Florida. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle of the week while the system moves
northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the
southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. There
is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48
hours.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis along
68W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is associated with a 1009
mb low pressure centered near 14N69W at 0900 UTC. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two while the system moves moves
westward. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and
the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hours.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National
Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 23W, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-12N between
20W-25W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N-17N with axis along 33W, moving
W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-10N between
31W-33W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 48W, moving
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N
between 43W-48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 12N30W to 14N52W. Aside
from the convection listed in the tropical wave section above,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
13N-15N between 50W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging continue to dominate the Gulf waters along
roughly 26N. This is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight
seas over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds over the western Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas. No
significant convection is evident across the Gulf at this time.

Little change is expected as the ridge will dominate the Gulf
waters during the next several days, with a high pressure center
possibly forming over the southeast Gulf later today. The ridge
will lift north through mid week, supporting moderate to fresh
southerly winds over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 68W.
See the special feature section above. In addition, a
surface trough will move through the Leeward Islands and
northeast Caribbean through Tue. High pressure north of the area
will support fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras late today.
Moderate trade winds will persist elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features above about developing low pressure off
northeast Florida.

A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 33N43W toward the
northern Bahamas. A surface trough is along 58W from 16N to 22N.
The ridge part of the ridge west of 60W will lift northward
through tonight, as the trough moves westward, passing through the
Bahamas and into Florida through mid week. The ridge will remain
oriented along roughly 29N through late week, supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of Hispaniola and near the approaches
to the Windward Passage Thu and Fri.

Farther east, a band of moderate to fresh trade winds persist
between 15N and 25N, roughly between the subtropical ridge and
the tropical wave area farther south. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this
zone. Lighter winds and seas persist elsewhere except for fresh
to strong NE winds off northwest Africa.

$$
Christensen
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