[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
516 UTC Mon Aug 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES.

Satellite and radar images indicate that an area of low pressure
is developing a couple of hundred miles east of Jacksonville,
Florida. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle of the week while the system moves
northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the
southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. There
is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48
hours.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis along
65W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is associated with a 1009
mb low pressure centered near 12N65W at 0000 UTC. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or two while the system moves moves
westward. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and
the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National
Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N-17N with axis along 22W, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-14N E of
25W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 32W, moving
W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from 05N-18N with axis along 47W, moving
west at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
06N-16N between 42W-55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 13N30W to 13N52W. The
ITCZ begins near 13N48W and continues to 13N58W. For information
on convection, see the Tropical Waves section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging continue to dominate the Gulf waters along
with moderate to locally fresh southerly flow across the western
half of the basin. Otherwise, middle to upper level diffluence
continue to support scattered showers and tstms over the
eastern Gulf E of 88W.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days, with a high pressure center forming over the southeast
Gulf by Mon. The ridge will lift north through mid week,
supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 65W.
See the special feature section above. In addition, a
surface trough will move through the Leeward Islands and
northeast Caribbean Mon and Tue. High pressure north of the
area will support fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras
through Mon night. Moderate trade winds will persist
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring north
of the NW Bahamas and well east of Florida, associated with
middle to  upper level diffluent flow. A surface trough is NE
of the Leeward Islands from 24N58W to 17N57W. Scattered showers
are within 120 nm of the trough axis. A 1026 mb high is centered
over the central Atlantic near 34N40W producing mostly fair
weather.

Over the western Atlantic, a ridge along roughly 25N will lift
north tonight ahead of a trough moving westward across the waters
south of 25N Mon through mid week. An area of low pressure is
expected to form off the southeastern coast of the United States
Mon or Tue. This system may briefly increase winds north of the
northern Bahamas and off northeast Florida.

$$
Formosa
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