[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
629 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo France has issued a gale warning for
Agadir, off the coast of Morocco. For more information see
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean
along the Cabo Verde Islands near 23W/24W from 06N-23N, moving W
5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave
axis. The wave will move very slowly for the next several days.
Although conditions are not favorable for development over the
next couple of days, there is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation in the next 5 days.

A tropical wave located over the central Atlantic, with axis
near 40W from 05N-23N. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-10N between
35-45W near the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave axis is over the eastern Atlantic near 56W south
of 18N and is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are evident
from 13-15N between 53-55W. Some gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves westward toward the Lesser
Antilles and it has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in
the next 5 days.

A tropical wave axis is over the Caribbean near 84W south of 18N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
along the central coast of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania at 19N16W
to 12N30W to 14N30W to 07N58W at the coast of Guyana. The east
Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure
over northern Colombia near 09N74W across Panama, Costa Rica and
NW to Nicaragua and El Salvador then west into the eastern
Pacific. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves noted above, scattered convection exists south of the
monsoon along the coast of Guinea-Bissau.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends westward along roughly 25N from 1018 mb high
pressure near 25N71W toward the coast of Texas. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly flow is evident between the ridge and
the northern portion of the trough over the Yucatan Peninsula.
The trough extends from 23N88W to 19N91W. Fresh SSE flow
spreading from the Yucatan Channel into the south central Gulf is
producing low level convergence and scattered showers over the
central Gulf of Mexico.

The ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the north
central Gulf will persist through early next week. The weak
trough will move from off the Yucatan peninsula across the west
central Gulf through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly flow over
the central Gulf will increase to fresh to strong over the north-
central and northeast basin between the trough and the ridge. The
trough will dissipate Sun, allowing moderate to fresh southerly
flow will resume for the western half of the Gulf and prevail
through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic
southwest to the east Caribbean and is producing stable
atmospheric conditions across the region. The interactions between
the tropical wave near 84W and the ridge to the north of the
Caribbean are modulating the trade wind flow over the basin. Fresh
NE winds are noted ahead of the tropical wave from the Gulf of
Honduras across the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh locally
strong trades are noted in the central Caribbean north of
Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over most of the basin, with up to 8
ft in south central Caribbean. Trade wind convergence into the
active monsoon trough is supporting a line of showers and a few
thunderstorms from Colombia to central Nicaragua.

The fresh trade winds will prevail over the central Caribbean
through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse near the
coast of Colombia at night. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night in the wake of
a tropical wave moving through that area today. A second tropical
wave will enter the eastern Caribbean late today and move west of
the basin by late Mon or Tue. A third tropical wave will move into
the eastern Caribbean Mon and the central Caribbean Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak ridge extends east to west from 1018 mb high pressure
centered near 25N71W. A 1022 mb high pressure is just southwest
of the Azores near 34N35W with a ridge reaching southwestward
through 26N50W. In addition to the gales off Agadir, moderate to
fresh and locally strong northeast winds are noted across the
Canary Islands due to strong pressure gradient in the region.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen across the Atlantic
generally south of 21-22N. Stable Saharan air generally dominates
the tropical Atlantic north of 15N to the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure ridge extending
along roughly 25N will persist across the western Atlantic into
early next week. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.
coast on Sat night, then stall and weaken N of 28N early on Mon
before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede
the front this weekend over the waters N of 30N. A tropical wave
will support moderate to occasionally fresh winds over the waters
N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Mon night through Wed.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net