[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
126 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean
along the Cabo Verde Islands near 23W from 06N-23N, moving W
5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
06N-14N between 26W-20W. The wave will move very slowly for
the next several days. Although conditions are not favorable
for development over the next couple of days, there is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days.

A tropical wave located over the central Atlantic, with axis
near 39/34W from 05N-23N. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-
14N between 28-40W near the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave axis is over the eastern Atlantic near 54W from
18N is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted 260 nm to
the east of the wave. Some gradual development of this system is
possible while it moves westward toward the Lesser Antilles and it
has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5
days.

A tropical wave axis is over the Caribbean near 82W from 18N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
west of 79W to the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania at 19N16W
to 13N39W to 05N58W at the coast of Guyana. The east Pacific
Ocean monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 09N74W across Panama, Costa Rica and NW to
Nicaragua and Salvador then west into the eastern Pacific. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves noted
above, scattered convection exists south of the monsoon from the
coast of Africa west to 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends westward along roughly 25N from 1018 mb high
pressure near 26N71W toward the coast of Texas. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly flow is evident between the ridge and
the northern portion of the trough over the Yucatan Peninsula.
The trough extends from 23N87W across the Yucatan Peninsula.
Fresh SSE flow spreading from the Yucatan Channel into the south
central Gulf is producing low level convergence and scattered
moderate isolated strong convection 260 nm west of the trough in
the Bay of Campeche and 320 nm to the north near 28N87W. A
cluster of strong thunderstorms are noted from 18N south to
Tabasco, Mexico. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across most of the Gulf.

Moderate to fresh southerly flow will persist over the central
Gulf through tonight, increasing to fresh to strong over the
north-central and northeast basin Sat as a surface trough develops
in the southwest Gulf, tightening the pressure against the ridge.
Moderate to fresh southerly flow will resume for the western half
of the Gulf Sun and prevail through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level trough extends from the central Atlantic southwest
to the east Caribbean and is producing stable atmospheric
conditions across the basin. The interactions between the
tropical wave near 82W and the ridge to the north of the
Caribbean are modulating the trade wind flow over the basin. Fresh
SE winds are noted ahead of the tropical wave from the Gulf of
Honduras across the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh locally
strong trades are noted in the central Caribbean north of
Colombia. Moderate northeast are noted in the eastern Caribbean
from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Island south across the
Lesser Antilles. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over most of the basin, with
up to 8 ft in south central Caribbean.

Fresh trade winds will prevail over the central Caribbean
through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. Fresh to
strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through
Sun night. A tropical wave north of western Panama will move
across the western Caribbean through Sat night. A second tropical
wave will enter the eastern Caribbean late Sat, followed by a
third tropical wave likely reaching the eastern Caribbean on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb high pressure centered near 26N71W and extends a weak
broad ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A 1024 mb
high pressure is just southwest of the Azores near 35N49W with a
ridge reaching southwestward through 26N51W. Moderate to fresh
and locally strong northeast winds are noted across the Canary
Islands due to strong pressure gradient in the region. Moderate
to fresh trade winds are seen across the Atlantic generally
south of 21-22N. Stable Saharan Air generally dominates the
tropical Atlantic north of 14N to the Lesser Antilles.

A high pressure ridge extending along roughly 25N will persist
across the western Atlantic into early next week. A cold front
will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sat night, then
stall and weaken N of 28N early on Mon before dissipating.
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede the front this
weekend over the waters N of 30N. Otherwise, a tropical wave will
support moderate to fresh winds over the waters N of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola Mon night through Wed.

$$
MTorres
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