[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Laura is centered inland over northeast Arkansas
near 35.8N 91.5W at 28/0900 UTC or 80 nm WNW of Memphis Tennessee
moving NE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean near the
Cabo Verde Islands has an axis along 25W. It is moving west at 15
to 20 kt. To the northwest, an associated northern vorticity
trough is analyzed from 24N35W to 16N30W. The trough was well
depicted by earlier ASCAT data. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 12N-15N between 24W-28W. Although conditions are not
favorable for development over the next couple of days, there is a
low chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days.

A strong tropical wave axis is along 48W from 02N-18N is moving
W at 15 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure is located east of the wave
near 12N41W along the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-15N between 44W-51W
and near the low from 11N-15N between 40W-44W.

A tropical wave axis is along 71W from Haiti to northeastern
Colombia, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted
near the wave axis.

A tropical wave reaches along roughly 93W from the southwest Gulf
of Mexico into the eastern Pacific along 90W. No significant
convection is noted with this tropical wave over the Gulf of
Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from southern Mauritania near 17N16W
to 13N30W to 14N38W to a 1012 mb low pressure located near 11N40W
along the monsoon trough to 07N58W along the coast of Guyana. The
east Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low
pressure over northern Colombia near 09N76W to Guatemala near
18N90W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N-13N between 31W-39W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted off eastern Panama.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features for information on Tropical Storm
Laura.

A ridge extends along roughly 25N from 1018 mb high pressure near
25N68W toward the coast of South Texas. Moderate to occasionally
fresh southerly flow is evident between the ridge and the northern
portion of the tropical wave moving across the far southwest Gulf,
impacting mainly the south central Gulf of Mexico currently, but
also supporting moderate southerly flow over the northwest Gulf.
Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the
western Gulf. A few showers are active off the western Florida
Panhandle related to an upper trough to the northwest.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh southerly flow will
persist over the central Gulf into early next week between high
pressure over the Atlantic, and tropical waves moving across the
far southwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep layer ridging persists north of the basin. A tropical wave is
analyzed between northeast Colombia and Haiti. The interactions
between the tropical waves and the ridge are modulating the trade
wind flow over the basin. Fresh winds are noted ahead of the
tropical wave in the Gulf of Honduras. Trade winds off Colombia
are temporarily suppressed by the wave axis position, but should
increase through the morning. Moderate trades are noted elsewhere.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft over most of the basin, with up to 7 ft in
south central Caribbean. Scattered moderate showers and a few
thunderstorms are active off eastern Panama close to the monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will prevail over the
south-central Caribbean through Sun, with locally strong winds
expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Fresh to strong winds will pulse for the next several
nights in the Gulf of Honduras region. The tropical wave over the
central Caribbean will move across the western Caribbean through
Sat night, accompanied by a modest increase in winds and seas.
Another tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean by late
Sat, and then across the remainder of the Caribbean through early
next week. A third tropical wave may reach the eastern Caribbean
by Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb high pressure centered near 25N68W. A 1023 mb high
pressure is near the Azores with a ridge reaching SW through
25N50W.

Overall, the high pressure ridge will persist across the western
Atlantic through this weekend. A cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast on Sun, then stall and weaken near or
just north of 31N early next week. Moderate to locally fresh SW
winds may precede the front this weekend over the waters N of 29N.
A tropical wave will increase winds and seas over the waters E of
65W Sun into early next week.

$$
Christensen
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