[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Laura is centered near 35.1N 92.0W at
28/0300 UTC or 25 nm NNE of Little Rock, Arkansas Louisiana
moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt. With
Laura having weakened to a tropical storm this afternoon and
continuing to move northward through Arkansas tonight, the only
remaining impacts over Gulf waters off Louisiana are some strong
SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft. Conditions should improve further
overnight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean near the
Cabo Verde Islands has an axis along 24W. It is moving west at 15
to 20 kt. To the northwest, an associated northern vorticity
trough is analyzed from 24N32W to 14N27W. The trough is well
depicted by the ASCAT data this evening. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N-15N between 20W-27W. Although
conditions are not favorable for development over the next couple
of days, they are forecast to become more conducive over the next
week as this wave moves into the central tropical Atlantic. There
is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days.

A strong tropical wave axis is along 47W from 02N-18N is moving
W at 15 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure is located east of the wave
near 12N41W along the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-15N between 44W-49W
and near the low from 11N-15N between 40W-44W.

A tropical wave axis is along 71W from the Dominican Republic to
eastern Colombia, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave previously in the far western Caribbean is moving
across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Pacific along
90W. Numerous moderate to scattered convection is noted from 15N-
19N and east of 93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania to the coast of
Senegal near 16N16W to 13N39W to a 1012 mb low pressure located
near 12N41W along the monsoon trough to 10N61W. The east Pacific
Ocean monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near the
Western coast of Colombia to Nicaragua. Aside from the convection
described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-13N between 28W-42W
and south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Brazil and
French Guiana from 02N-06N and west of 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features for information on Tropical Storm
Laura.

A trough associated with Laura is located over the far NW Gulf
offshore the Louisiana/Texas coast, producing scattered showers
from near 29N91W to 27N96W. Broad area of scattered showers is
noted in the Yucatan Channel extending into the SE Gulf coast.
A 1018 mb high pressure over the Atlantic extends into the
Eastern Gulf. ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh winds
across the central Gulf and light to gentle winds in the
eastern Gulf.

High pressure will build over the eastern Gulf through this
weekend, resulting in moderate to fresh southerly flow across
the waters W of 90W through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is analyzed N-NE of the basin, while the monsoon
trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 10N74W, in the
western coast of Colombia to the east coast of Nicaragua. A
surface trough extends from the low to 13N79W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the western Caribbean west of Jamaica and
north of 15N. Other than the convection mentioned in the sections
above, fair skies cover the remainder of the basin. ASCAT data
shows moderate to fresh easterly trades across central and eastern
Caribbean while lighter winds in the western Caribbean.

Fresh trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean
through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse for the next several nights in the Gulf of
Honduras region. A tropical wave along 71W will move across the
central and western Caribbean through Sat night, accompanied by
a modest increase in winds and seas. Another tropical wave will
approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Sun and move into the
eastern Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front continues to reside along 31N from near
Charleston, South Carolina to Bermuda. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 27N69W to 30N76W with scattered showers and
thunderstorms within 120-180 nm on either side of the trough.

A 1018 mb high pressure centered near 26N68W. A 1025 mb high
pressure is near the Azores with a ridge reaching SW through
25N51W.

Overall, the high pressure ridge will persist across the western
Atlantic through this weekend. A cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast on Sun, then stall and weaken near or
just north of 31N early next week. Moderate to locally fresh SW
winds may precede the front this weekend over the waters N of 29N.
A tropical wave will increase winds and seas over the waters E of
65W Sun into early next week.

$$
MTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net