[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
557 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad and elongated area of low pressure near 12N44W, midway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands, has a
central pressure of 1009 mb and is moving W at 15-20 kt. This
system continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms on the west side of the disturbance. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while
the system moves generally west- northwestward across the central
and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. This system has a
high chance of developing in the next 48 hours. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A 1008 mb low is located near 14N71W is moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
This system is moving across the central Caribbean and is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds on the north side of
the disturbance. Significant development of this system is
unlikely during the next day or so while it moves quickly westward
at about 20 mph across the central Caribbean Sea. After that
time, however, the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-
northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week or this weekend when the system reaches the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. This system has a medium chance of formation
through the next 48 hours, and a high chance in the next 5 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 37W, southward
from 18N and is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 08N to 15N between 29W and 42W. Over the next day
or two, this wave is forecast to approach the low pressure
described above in the Special Features section.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 52W, southward
from 21N and is moving W at 15 kt. Convection previously
associated with this wave as diminished.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania, Africa
near 20N16W to 14N30W to 09N50W. The ITCZ begins near 09N51W to
the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is
off the coast of Africa, well south of the monsoon trough, from
06N- 12N and E of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak low pressure of 1010 mb has formed off the Louisiana coast
near 29N91W, with a surface trough extending SW from the low to
25N93W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the NE Gulf,
N of 26N and E of 88W. Light variable winds are seen throughout
the basin. Seas range from 1-2 ft.

For the forecast, building high pressure will create generally
tranquil conditions in the Gulf through the rest of the week. Low
pressure forming in the central Caribbean this morning has a high
chance of tropical formation by this weekend, and this system may
approach the Yucatan Peninsula or Channel this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for details on low pressure
in the central Caribbean.

Aside from the low, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is ongoing in the SW Caribbean S of 13N and W of 75W.
 Moderate to fresh trades are near the tropical wave in the east-
central Caribbean, with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas
generally range from 2 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the fast speed of the central Caribbean system
should inhibit significant development of this system over the
next day or so. However, the wave and associated low pressure
should slow down and turn WNW in the western Caribbean at the end
of the week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend in the NW Caribbean. There is a medium chance of tropical
formation through Thu night, then a high chance by the end of the
weekend. Looking ahead, low pressure associated with another
tropical wave is expected to move across the Tropical N Atlc
waters late Thu and approach the Atlantic waters off the Leeward
Islands late Fri. This system also has the potential for tropical
development.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on the low
pressure in the central tropical Atlantic.

A trough is north of the Turks and Caicos from 29N68W to 23N72W.
Scattered moderate convection is near this trough from 24N-28N
between 63W-69W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in
the western Atlantic off the Florida coast and across the Bahamas,
N of 23N between 74W-80W.

Otherwise, high pressure stretches across the basin anchored by a
1021 mb high near 30N54W and a 1022 mb high near 29N38W. Moderate
to fresh winds are in the central Atlantic from 12N-24N between
34W-57W, north of the Mona Passage, and off the coast of Western
Sahara, with light to gentle winds noted across the rest of the
basin. Seas range 4-8 ft.

For the forecast, the system in the central tropical Atlantic is
forecast to approach the Leeward Islands Fri, move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sat, and then Hispaniola and the
Turks and Caicos Islands Sun.


$$
KONARIK
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