[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad and elongated area of low pressure near 11N41W, about
1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, has a
central pressure of 1009 mb and is moving W at 15-20 kt. This
system  continues to produce a concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms on the west side of the disturbance.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
day or two while the system moves generally west- northwestward
across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
This system has a high chance of developing in the next 48 hours.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A 1008 mb low is located near 13N69W and is accompanied by a
tropical wave along 69W, southward from 18N, and is moving W
at 15 kt. This system is moving across the central Caribbean
and is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds on the north side
of the disturbance.  Significant development of this system is
unlikely during the next day or so while it moves quickly
westward at about 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea.  After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more
slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this week or this weekend when the system reaches the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system has a medium chance of
formation through the next 48 hours.  Please refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 35W,
southward from 18N and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Showers
are within 100 nm of this wave from 07N-15N. Over the next
day or two, this wave is forecast to approach the low pressure
mentioned above in the Special Features section.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 50W, southward
from 21N and is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within
60 nm of the wave.

See the Special Features section for more information on the
tropical wave along 69W in the central Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania, Africa
near 20N16W to 15N26W to 09N50W. The ITCZ begins near 09N51W to
the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection
is off the coast of Africa, well south of the monsoon trough,
from 06N-12N and E of 18W.  Scattered showers are within 150 nm
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 30W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough is inducing a surface trough in the north-
central Gulf from 29N91W to 25N91W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are along this trough. Isolated thunderstorms
are also noted in the eastern Gulf, N of 23N and E of 89W.
Light variable winds are seen throughout the basin. Seas
range from 1-2 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will prevail
across the Gulf through Wed night before high pressure
over the central Atlantic builds modestly across Florida
and into the eastern basin Thu through Fri. Looking ahead,
fresh to strong winds are expected over the south central
Gulf Sat and Sun with and ahead of a potential low pressure
approaching the region from the northwest Caribbean and Cuba.
This low has a potential for tropical development.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for details on the
tropical wave in the central Caribbean.


Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave
and low along 69W, scattered moderate convection in the SW
Caribbean is off the coast of Colombia and Panama, S of 12N
between 75W-83W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in
between Cuba and Jamaica in addition to the NW Caribbean
near the Yucatan. Moderate to fresh trades are near the tropical
wave in the east-central Caribbean, with light to gentle trades
elsewhere. Seas range from 2 to 6 ft, with 10 ft near the 1008
mb
low in the central Caribbean.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave will quickly move across
the across the Caribbean Sea. This fast motion should limit
development through Wed, but as the wave begins to slow down by late
week in the western Caribbean, environmental conditions should
become more favorable for the development of a tropical depression.
There is a medium chance of tropical development through Thu, then a
high chance through the weekend. Looking ahead, low pressure
associated with another tropical wave is expected to move across the
Tropical N Atlc waters late Thu and approach the Atlantic waters off
the Leeward Islands late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on the low
pressure in the central tropical Atlantic.

A trough is north of the Turks and Caicos from 29N69W to 23N72W.
Scattered moderate convection is near this trough from 24N-28N
between 63W-69W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in
the western Atlantic off the Florida coast and across the Bahamas, N
of 23N between 74W-80W. Otherwise, high pressure stretches across
the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 30N54W and a 1022 mb high
near 29N34W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the central Atlantic
from 12N-24N between 34W-57W, north of the Mona Passage, and off the
coast of Western Sahara, with light to gentle winds noted across the
rest of the basin. Seas range 4-9 ft.

For the forecast, the broad and elongated area of low pressure
is forecast to approach the Leeward Islands Fri, move across or
just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sat, and then
through the southern Bahamas Sat night and Sun.

$$

AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net