[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171635
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1235 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 24W S of 21N, moving W at 15 kt.
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 07N
to 11N between 22W and 28W. Environmental conditions are expected
to become more conducive for the development of a tropical
depression during the middle to latter part of this week while the
system moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. The
chance of development during the next 48 hours is low, with a
medium chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W S of 21N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends
from 08N to 13N between 35W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 09N to 15N between 51W and 60W. The fast
forward speed is likely to limit significant development while the
system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands
today, and moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea on
Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, the system is expected to
move more slowly westward across the western Caribbean Sea, where
upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development
of a tropical depression during the latter part of this week.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected over portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands beginning today through Tuesday morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 12N26W to 11N50W. The
ITCZ continues from 11N50W to 11N56W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 30W and
35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the NW Gulf from Louisiana to near
Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is located over the NW Gulf ahead of the front.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the front. Light winds
prevail over the remainder of the basin.

The cold front will stall into mid-week. Otherwise high pressure
centered east of the area will extend over the eastern and
southern Gulf, leading to light winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave
that will be entering the eastern Caribbean tonight.

Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the south central
Caribbean. Moderate trades prevail over the eastern Caribbean.
Light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere.

Generally moderate trades will prevail through much of the basin
into late week. A strong, fast moving tropical wave will cross the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, then move across the
eastern and central Carribbean Tue and Wed, bringing squally
conditions, gusty winds, and potentially heavy rainfall. There is
a low chance of tropical development from this wave over the
eastern Caribbean, but a medium chance when it slows over the
western Caribbean late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave
near the Cabo Verde Islands.

A nearly stationary front just offshore the SE U.S. is generating
scattered convection along it from just off NE Florida to offshore
the Outer Banks. The remnant trough of T.S. Josephine extends from
28N67W to 22N69W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 120 nm E of the trough axis. Farther east, an
expansive deep layer ridge roughly parallels 30N with a surface
center of 1020 mb near 29N53W. Fresh to strong winds accompany the
tropical wave near 57W. Light to gentle winds prevail in the
vicinity of the surface ridge. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere N of 20N.

High pressure will dominate weather this week, bringing gentle to
moderate mainly southerly winds to the area.

$$
AL
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