[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
611 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A strong eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 23N
S of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted from 07N-11N between 19W-25W. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for the
development of a tropical depression during the middle to latter
part of this week while the system moves westward across the
central tropical Atlantic. The chance of development during the
next 48 hours is low, with a medium chance of tropical formation
in the next 5 days.

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 36W
from 07N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated
strong convection extends from 09N to 14N between 27W and 37W.

A strong central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along
54W from 17N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is from 09N to 14N between 47W and
59W. The system will bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
over the Windward and southern Leeward islands this afternoon
through Tue morning as it passes. After that time, upper- level
winds could become more conducive for development while the system
moves over the central and western Caribbean Sea. The chance of
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is low, with a
medium chance of development in the next 5 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to
11N25W to 12N43W. The ITCZ continues from 13N42W to 11N53W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 10N56W to 09N61W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate to strong convection is from 10N-14N between
59W-63W, including over the southern Windward Islands.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb surface high is situated over the NW Gulf of Mexico
near 28N94W. Scattered moderate convection is located just off the
Louisiana coast in association with a dissipating stationary
front. Light winds and slight seas prevail over the basin.

A reinforcing cold front will also stall along the northern Gulf
coast today and remain in place into mid-week. The high pressure
will re-orient and center more toward the eastern Gulf early this
week, but winds and seas will remain light.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on the strong
tropical wave that will be entering the eastern Caribbean Tue.

An upper-level low pressure centered over central Cuba is inducing
scattered moderate convection between Cuba, Jamaica, and the
Cayman Islands, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. The ITCZ is
producing showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands and
extreme SE Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is also
occurring offshore Panama in association with the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough. Moderate trade winds are occurring across most of
the basin early this morning.

Generally moderate trades will prevail through much
of the basin into late week. A strong, fast moving tropical wave
will cross the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, then
move across the eastern and central Carribbean Tue and Wed,
bringing squally conditions, gusty winds, and potentially heavy
rainfall. There is a low chance of tropical development from this
wave over the eastern Caribbean, but a medium chance when it
slows over the western Caribbean late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on the strong
tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands.

A nearly stationary front just offshore the SE U.S. is generating
scattered convection along it from just off NE Florida to offshore
the Outer Banks. Scattered thunderstorms are also ongoing over
the southern Bahamas in association with a Cuban upper-level low
pressure. A weak trough from 29N64W to 23N68W is inducing
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection in its vicinity.
An expansive deep layer ridge roughly parallels 30N with surface
centers of 1021 and 1020 mb at 30N35W and 29N53W, respectively.

This high pressure will dominate weather this week, bringing
gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds to the area.

$$
KONARIK
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