[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
718 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Remnants of Josephine are centered near 20.9N 65.8W at 16/2100
UTC or 220 nm NW of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 10
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 20N-28N between 60W-65W. The
remnants are forecast to recurve toward the north and northeast
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Please read the last NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 20W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-10N
between 17W-23W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 32W and from
08N-24N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms
are in the vicinity of the wave axis and the monsoon trough along
13N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from
20N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted with this wave from 04N-13N between 46W-59W.
The system is expected to move across the central and western
Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for
development during the middle to latter part of this week. There
is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to
12N22W to 12N36W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 12N50W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave near 12N54W to 09N61W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-14N
and west of 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017
mb high near 26N94W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over
the SW Bay of Campeche associated to a surface trough that extends
from 23N97W to 18N94W. Another trough extends over the northeast
Gulf from 29N84W to 27N90W with scattered showers. Mid to upper
level trough moving eastward across the East coast is pushing a
cold front across the Florida Panhandle with scattered showers.

Weak high pressure will continue supporting gentle winds and low
seas across the through mid-week. Locally fresh winds are
possible late this evening in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the
Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. A weak cold front may
stall along the northern Gulf coast Mon into Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate
convection over Central America and the SW Caribbean, mainly S of
10N Between 77W-84W. Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions prevail.
Moderate trades are noted across most of the basin, with some
locally fresh east winds occurring off the coast of Colombia.

Low pressure of 1010 mb, remnants of Josephine near
21N65W, will move west-northwest tonight and dissipate late
tonight or early Mon morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade
winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through
Tue, then diminish to mainly moderate winds. A tropical wave is
forecast to cross the Windward and southern Leeward Islands
tonight into early Mon, then move across the eastern Caribbean
early this week. The wave will then move across the central and
western Caribbean Sea during the middle and latter part of the
week. It will be followed by fresh to strong east winds and also
be accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
some possibly with strong gusty winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the sections above for details on the remnants of Josephine
and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1020 mb
high centered near 30N52W. Fair weather prevails across the basin
due to this.

Low pressure of 1010 mb, remnants of Josephine near
21N65W, will move west-northwest tonight and dissipate late
tonight or early Mon morning. Otherwise, persistent high
pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of
Mexico will support gentle to moderate south to southeast winds.
A weak cold front may stall just offshore the southeast U.S.
coast early this week.

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net