[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161631
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Josephine is centered near 20.4N 65.0W at
16/1500 UTC or 195 nm NW of the Northern Leeward Islands moving
WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 260 nm
in the NE quadrant, and 300 nm in the SE quadrant. A turn
towards the northwest is expected by tonight, with Josephine or
its remnants forecast to slow down and recurve toward the north
and northeast on Tue and Tue night. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible in the Leeward and Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
today through Mon. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours. Josephine is expected to become a remnant low or
dissipate by Mon.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is moving off the coast of
Africa along 16W this morning. The wave axis extends from 04N
to 11N and is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. An area of scattered
moderate convection exists from 04N to 11N between 13W-20W.
This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during
the next few days, and some development will be possible by the
middle to latter part of the week as environmental conditions
become more conducive while the system is over the central
tropical Atlantic.

A weak eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, from 11N
south, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms
are in the vicinity of the wave axis near the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 49W from 20N
southward, moving west at 15 kt. From 04N to 12N between 45W
and 51W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring. This wave is forecast to move westward at about 20
mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely
to limit development while the system approaches the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands today and Monday and moves across
the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tue.  After that time, the system
is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive
for development during the middle to latter part of this week.
There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours, as well as over the next 5 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Africa near 14N16W to
12N34W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N35W to 11N46W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave along 49W, from 11N51W to 08N60W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-11N
between 51W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1015 mb high near 26N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
over the SW Bay of Campeche associated to a surface trough near
22N97W to 18N93W, mainly south of 23N. Mid to upper level trough
moving eastward across the East coast is pushing a cold front SE
across the Southeast Plains. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring just off the Louisiana and Florida Panhandle, north of
25N and east of 90W.

Weak high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to across
the central Gulf will support gentle winds and low seas across
the through mid-week. Locally fresh winds are possible tonight
in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to
local effects. A weak cold front may stall along the northern
Gulf coast Mon into Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean, mainly S of
11N Between 75W-82W. Otherwise mainly dry conditions prevail.
See the Special Features section above for information on the
potential for heavy rain in the far NE Caribbean from Tropical
Storm Josephine today and Mon as it passes N and E of the basin.
Moderate trades exist across most of the basin, with some
locally fresh east winds occurring off the coast of Colombia.

Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Josephine will pass well
north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands today and tonight, then
move farther away from the area Mon. Moderate to fresh trade
winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through
early week, with strongest winds expected near the coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. The tropical wave along
49W is forecast to cross the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands tonight into early Mon, then move across the eastern
Caribbean early this week and by the western Caribbean Sea
during the middle and latter part of the week.
It will be accompanied by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, some possibly with strong gusty winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on Tropical
Depression Josephine.

A surface ridge prevails across the subtropical Atlantic from a
1024 mb high S of the Azores to a 1021 mb high near 29N51W to
southern Florida, leading to gentle winds and fair weather north
of 25N. In fact, fair weather prevails across the basin north of
20N, except for Tropical Depression Josephine. Farther west,
scattered moderate convection is noted north of 28N between 77W-
79W as cold front near the East coast approaches the Western
Atlantic.

Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Josephine near 20.4N
65.0W 1009 mb at 11 AM EDT. Josephine will move to 21.3N 66.4W
this evening, then weaken to a remnant low Mon morning. The
remnant low is forecast to dissipate by early Thu. Otherwise,
the persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic
into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate south to
southeast winds. A weak cold front may stall just offshore the
southeast U.S. coast early next week.

$$
MTorres
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