[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142235
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 17.8N 56.1W at 14/2100
UTC or 400 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 14
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong
convection is noted within 150 nm NE quadrant and 90 nm SE and NW
quadrants. A W-NW motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days, followed by a turn toward the NW late this
weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the center of
Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Storm Kyle is centered near 37.7N 71.7W at 14/2100 UTC
or 160 nm SE of Atlantic City New Jersey moving ENE at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W south of 20N, moving
W at 10 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted from 13N to 15N
between 35W and 37W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W south of 21N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over
western Panama and Costa Rica near the wave axis. Heavy rainfall
may occur in Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend as this
wave crosses Central America and supports low pressure development
in the eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 15N16W to 13N34W
to 09N43W. The ITCZ extends from 09N43W to 14N52W. Besides the
convection described above, scattered moderate convection is noted
within 150 nm of the monsoon trough between 25W and 30W, and
within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between 38W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of Mexico as a high
pressure ridge extends across the northern Gulf. Seas are 3 ft or
less across the basin, based on available buoy observations and
earlier altimeter data. A line of showers and thunderstorms is
currently moving over the coastal waters of southern Mississippi.

High pressure across the northern Gulf will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through the
weekend. Locally fresh winds are possible each night through Sun
night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula
due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section above for information on
the strong western Caribbean tropical wave that could support
heavy rainfall over portions of Central America this weekend.

Fresh trades prevail across the south-central waters this evening
to the south of a subtropical ridge across the western Atlantic.
Earlier altimeter data indicated seas of 8-11 ft in this region.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades are noted over the remaining
area, with seas less than 8 ft. Dry air is precluding showers and
thunderstorms across the basin, aside from some isolated, fast-
moving showers between 65W and 70W.

Tropical Storm Josephine is expected to pass well NE of the
Leeward Islands over the weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue across the south-central Caribbean through tonight, with
the strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Josephine and Tropical Storm Kyle.

A subtropical ridge axis extends across the western Atlantic from
high pressure centered near 31N55W. The enhanced pressure gradient
between this high and T.S. Josephine is producing a broad area of
moderate to fresh easterly winds between 45W and 65W. A weak
surface trough is analyzed from 31N44W to 29N48W. Farther east, a
1025 mb high is near 35N28W, with moderate to fresh NE winds
between this ridge and the western coast of Africa.

Tropical Storm Josephine near 17.8N 56.1W 1004 mb at 5 PM EDT
moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Josephine will move to 18.6N 58.0W Sat morning, 19.9N 60.5W Sat
afternoon, 21.1N 62.9W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical
depression near 22.5N 65.1W Sun afternoon, 24.1N 66.7W Mon
morning, and 25.7N 67.7W Mon afternoon. Josephine will become a
remnant low as it moves to near 28.6N 67.5W Tue afternoon.
Otherwise, a persistent high pressure ridge extending from the
Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds.

$$
B Reinhart
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