[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 16.1N 54.7W at 14/1500
UTC or 500 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at
14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous
strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant. A WNW general motion is expected to continue for
the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest
late this weekend or early next week.  On the forecast track,
the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast
of the Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 20N southward,
moving west around 10 knots. Scattered moderate is from 08N to
14N between 30W and 38W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 21N southward,
moving west at 15 knots. This wave will move across the
western Carribbean and into Central America this weekend. An
area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis
as it moves to the west of Central America. It is possible that
heavy rainfall may occur in Costa Rica and Panama through the
weekend. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 17N
between 77W and 86W.

A tropical wave that extends southward into the eastern Pacific
is along 96W in the Bay of Campeche. This wave is moving west
at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is S of 20N and
W of 93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 15N16W to 13N30W
to 08N42W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the
monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Aside from the previously mentioned tropical wave in the Bay of
Campeche, high pressure generally centered over the northern
Gulf of Mexico is dominating weather over the region, with light
to gentle winds, seas below 4 ft, and no significant convection
in the region.

High pressure across the northern Gulf will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through the
weekend. Locally fresh winds are possible each night through
Sun night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan
peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section above for information on
the strong tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean and
its impact on Central America into the weekend.

Also, please see the Special Features section above for details
on Tropical Storm Josephine that will pass well north and east
of the Leeward Islands this weekend.

Elsewhere across the region, dry air is precluding showers and
thunderstorms across the basin, aside from some isolated fast-
moving trade showers between 62W and 68W. Fresh to strong trade
winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through
tonight, with strongest winds expected near the coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N54W.
A small surface trough is over the central Atlantic from
32N43W to 28N47W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
trough. A 1026 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 35N29W.

Tropical Storm Josephine is near 16.1N 54.7W 1006 mb at
11 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt
gusts 45 kt. Josephine will move to 17.1N 56.7W this evening,
18.4N 59.3W Sat morning, 19.7N 61.8W Sat evening, 20.9N 64.1W
Sun morning, 22.5N 66.0W Sun evening, and weaken to a tropical
depression near 24.0N 67.0W Mon morning. Otherwise, a persistent
high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of
Mexico will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
over the W Atlantic.

$$
Formosa
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