[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE, at 14/0300 UTC, is near
14.8N 52.2W. JOSEPHINE is moving toward the WNW, or 300 degrees,
15 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50
knots. The motion of JOSEPHINE, toward the west-northwest, is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward
the northwest will happen late this weekend or early next week.
The center of JOSEPHINE is expected to pass to the northeast of
the Leeward Islands during the weekend. Please monitor the
progress of JOSEPHINE if you are in the area of the Leeward
Islands. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
225 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the
monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. The forecast is this wave
to move across Central America during the next two days. An area
of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis as it
moves to the west of Central America. The atmospheric
conditions are expected to be conducive for development. It is
possible that a tropical depression may form during this weekend
or early next week. It is possible that heavy rainfall may occur
in Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend. Current
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters covers
Colombia and its coastal plains and coastal waters, and sections
of NW Venezuela near Lake Maracaibo, from 03N to 10N between 72W
and 80W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers:
the SW Caribbean Sea, inland areas of Central America, and parts
of the eastern Pacific Ocean, from 06N to 15N between 80W and
86W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 74W in Colombia
beyond Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong is in
the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate covers the Caribbean Sea
from 18N to 23N between Haiti and NW Cuba.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward from 87W westward. A tropical
wave is along 92W/93W from 21N southward, moving westward
through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, 15 knots. Broken to
overcast multilayered convective debris clouds, and possibly
remnant rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico and inland
sections of Mexico, from 22N southward from 88W westward to 100W
in Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16W, to 14N22W 13N30W 10N33W
08N36W, and 10N43W. The ITCZ is along 09N/10N from 54W to 61W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong is within 210 nm on either side of the monsoon trough.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 12N between
50W and 53W, and from 10N to 11N between 57W and 59W, to the
north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward from 87W westward. A tropical
wave is along 92W/93W from 21N southward, moving westward
through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast
multilayered convective debris clouds, and possibly remnant
rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico and inland sections of
Mexico, from 22N southward from 88W westward to 100W in Mexico.

Precipitation: isolated moderate from 88W eastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. The
surface pressure gradient is comparatively flat.

High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will support gentle
to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Locally
fresh winds are possible each night through Sunday night, in the
eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan Peninsula due to local
effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. The forecast is this wave
to move across Central America during the next two days. An area
of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis as it
moves to the west of Central America. The atmospheric
conditions are expected to be conducive for development. It is
possible that a tropical depression may form during this weekend
or early next week. It is possible that heavy rainfall may occur
in Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend. Current
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters covers
Colombia and its coastal plains and coastal waters, and sections
of NW Venezuela near Lake Maracaibo, from 03N to 10N between 72W
and 80W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers:
the SW Caribbean Sea, inland areas of Central America, and parts
of the eastern Pacific Ocean, from 06N to 15N between 80W and
86W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 74W in Colombia
beyond Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong is in
the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate covers the Caribbean Sea
from 18N to 23N between Haiti and NW Cuba.

Tropical Storm Josephine near 14.8N 52.2W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Josephine will move to 15.8N 54.0W Fri morning, 17.3N 56.7W Fri
evening, 18.8N 59.5W Sat morning, 20.0N 62.1W Sat evening, 21.3N
64.4W Sun morning, and 22.8N 66.2W Sun evening. Josephine will
weaken to a tropical depression near 26.0N 67.7W late Mon.
Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through late Fri night, with strongest winds
expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from one upper level Bermuda-area
cyclonic circulation to a second upper level cyclonic
circulation center that is near the NW half of the Bahamas and
the Atlantic Ocean side coast of Cuba. A surface trough is along
63W/64W from 20N to 27N. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers
the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 60W westward.

A second surface trough is along 24N46W 29N44W, curving beyond
32N45W. Precipitation: rainshowers are within 180 nm on either
side of the surface trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 26N northward, away from the surface troughs.

Tropical Storm Josephine near 14.8N 52.2W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Josephine will move to 15.8N 54.0W Fri morning; 17.3N 56.7W Fri
evening; 18.8N 59.5W Sat morning; 20.0N 62.1W Sat evening; 21.3N
64.4W Sun morning; and 22.8N 66.2W Sun evening. Josephine will
weaken to a tropical depression near 26.0N 67.7W late Mon. A
persistent ridge, that is extending from the Atlantic Ocean into
the Gulf of Mexico, will support gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds, locally fresh S of 25N, through Friday night.

$$
mt
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