[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Josephine, at 13/2100 UTC, is
near 14.5N 50.6W or 865 nm ESE of the northern Leeward Islands,
moving WNW at 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with
gusts to 50 knots. This general motion is expected to continue
for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest
late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the
Leeward Islands over the weekend. Please monitor the progress
of Josephine if you are in the Leeward Islands.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm of the
NE semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 18N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within
180 nm of the wave axis and south of 10N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 23N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Isolated moderate convection
is within 180 nm of the wave axis. The interaction of the wave
and the Colombian low pressure is enhancing an area of moderate
to strong convection along the western coast of Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania
near 17N16W, to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 13N46W,
then resumes west of T.S. Josephine near 11N53W to 08N60W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis over the western Atlantic extends into the
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the
Northern Gulf coast from western Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle. Also, scattered moderate to strong convection is seen
concentrated Along the western portion of the Florida Peninsula
and the eastern Gulf from afternoon sea breeze. In the Bay of
Campeche, an area of Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
observed south of 20N. Convection in the Yucatan Peninsula is
associated to the wave along 90W. An upper level east-to-west
oriented trough extends from NW Cuba to NE Mexico near 24N98W.

On the forecast, high pressure across the northern Gulf will
support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the
basin. Locally fresh winds are possible each night through
Sun night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan
peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean
S of 10N between the coastal areas of Nicaragua to western
Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in south
central Caribbean Sea through late Friday night. The comparatively
strongest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia, and in
the Gulf of Venezuela, each night. Fresh winds will pulse through
the Windward Passage during the next several nights. On the
forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean through late Fri night, with strongest
winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 31N54W. further east,
1026 mb high is over the E Atlantic. Both broad areas of high
Pressure remain in control over the basin north of 20N. There
are some scattered showers noted to the north of the Leeward
Islands. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted at this
time.

Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression near 25.0N 67.5W
Mon afternoon. Otherwise, a persistent ridge extending from the
Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds, locally fresh S of 25N through Fri
night.

$$
MMTorres
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