[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression ELEVEN, at 13/0900 UTC, is
near 12.9N 47.9W. ELEVEN is moving westward, or 285 degrees, 13
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. It is expected to turn west-northwest today and tonight.
This motion is forecast to continue during the next few days,
followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week. Please
monitor the progress of ELEVEN if you are in the area of the
Leeward Islands. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days. The depression is expected to become a
tropical storm later today. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is within 180 nm northwest of the center.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 19N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: nearby precipitation is
related to the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 23N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
in clusters within 180 nm of the tropical wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through
Central America. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong in clusters covers the area from central Cuba westward.
Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Caribbean Sea from 80W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 14N19W, 10N30W, 10N35W, and 13N39W.
The ITCZ is along 09N/10N from 52W to 61W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate isolated strong is within 150 nm to the south
of the monsoon trough from 39W eastward. Scattered moderate is
within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level east-to-west oriented trough extends from NW Cuba
to Mexico near 24N98W at the coast. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated moderate cover the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 24N southward and 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A
broad ridge extends from central Florida, toward the SW corner
of the area.

High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will support gentle
to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Fresh to
strong winds are possible each night in the eastern Bay of
Campeche, near the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica/Panama. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward
and 74W westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in south central
Caribbean Sea through late Friday night. The comparatively
strongest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia, and in
the Gulf of Venezuela, each night. Fresh winds will pulse
through the Windward Passage during the next several nights.

Tropical Depression ELEVEN near 12.9N 47.9W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
ELEVEN will strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.8N 49.7W this
afternoon, move to 14.9N 52.2W Fri morning, 16.2N 55.0W Fri
afternoon, 17.6N 57.7W Sat morning, 18.8N 60.2W Sat afternoon,
and 20.3N 62.5W Sun morning. ELEVEN will change little in
intensity as it moves to 23.0N 66.5W early Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough
in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is from 20N northward between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W
in the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 60W eastward.

A persistent ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean into the
Gulf of Mexico, will support gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds, mainly south of 27N, through the weekend.

Tropical Depression ELEVEN near 12.9N 47.9W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
ELEVEN will strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.8N 49.7W this
afternoon, move to 14.9N 52.2W Fri morning, 16.2N 55.0W Fri
afternoon, 17.6N 57.7W Sat morning, 18.8N 60.2W Sat afternoon,
and 20.3N 62.5W Sun morning. ELEVEN will change little in
intensity as it moves to 23.0N 66.5W early Mon.

$$
mt/dbm
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