[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130611
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression ELEVEN, at 13/0300 UTC, is
near 12.5N 47.1W. ELEVEN is moving westward, or 275 degrees, 13
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. The westward motion of ELEVEN is expected to continue
through Wednesday. Please monitor the progress of ELEVEN if you
are in the area of the Leeward Islands. A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast later tonight. This motion is forecast to
continue during the next few days, followed by a turn toward the
northwest early next week. Gradual strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days. The depression is expected to
become a tropical storm on Thursday. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm of the
center in the N quadrant; isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 13N to 16N between 40W and 45W.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 19N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the
monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 24N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong in clusters is within 360 nm
to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 26N, and within 180
nm to the west of the tropical wave from 15N to 24N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving
through the western parts of the Caribbean Sea and Central
America. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in
clusters covers the area from SE Cuba westward. Broad upper
level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Caribbean
Sea from 80W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 14N19W 10N30W 10N35W, and 12N38W. The
ITCZ is along 09N/10N from 51W to 61W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within
200 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 34W eastward, and
within 30 nm on either side of the rest of the monsoon trough.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 150 nm
on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough
in the eastern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward
between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level east-to-west oriented trough extends from NW Cuba
to Mexico near 24N98W at the coast.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate cover the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from
24N southward from 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A
broad ridge extends from central Florida, toward the SW corner
of the area.

High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will support gentle
to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Fresh to
locally strong winds are possible each night in the eastern
Bay of Campeche, near the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local
effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving
through the western parts of the Caribbean Sea and Central
America. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in
clusters covers the area from SE Cuba westward. Broad upper
level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Caribbean
Sea from 80W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica/Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N
southward from 74W westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in south central
Caribbean Sea through late Friday night. The comparatively
strongest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia, and in
the Gulf of Venezuela, during the nighttimes, each night. Fresh
winds will pulse through the Windward Passage during the next
several nights. Tropical Depression ELEVEN near 12.5N 47.1W 1007
mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. ELEVEN will strengthen to a tropical storm near
13.0N 48.4W Thu morning; move to 14.2N 51.0W Thu evening; 15.7N
53.7W Fri morning; 17.0N 56.4W Fri evening; 18.3N 58.9W Sat
morning; and 19.7N 61.4W Sat evening. Eleven will change little
in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 65.6W late Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough
in the eastern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward
between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 25N northward from 60W eastward.

A persistent ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean into the
Gulf of Mexico, will support gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds, mainly south of 27N, through the weekend.
Tropical Depression ELEVEN near 12.5N 47.1W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
ELEVEN will strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.0N 48.4W Thu
morning; move to 14.2N 51.0W Thu evening; 15.7N 53.7W Fri
morning; 17.0N 56.4W Fri evening; 18.3N 58.9W Sat morning; and
19.7N 61.4W Sat evening. ELEVEN will change little in intensity
as it moves to 22.5N 65.6W late Sun.

$$
mt
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