[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near 10N30W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 160 nm of the
center of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive
enough to support additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development
late this week. This low has a medium probability of tropical
cyclogenesis. Please see the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather
Outlook for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 30W south of 15N, moving W at 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
06N to 11N between 30W and 35W. Low pressure is along the wave
axis, where the wave intersects the monsoon trough. There is a
medium probability for the low to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Please see the special features section above for more
information.

A tropical wave axis is near 47W south of 20N, moving W at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 20N between
44W and 48W. Isolated showers are also seen within 50 nm of the
wave.

A tropical wave axis is near 65W south of 17N, moving W at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of the wave
axis across Venezuela.

A tropical wave axis is near 82W south of 19N, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered strong convection is noted south of 18N, between 77W
and 86W, including portions of Central America from eastern
Honduras southward to Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 11N28W to 10N50W. The ITCZ continues from 10N50W to the
coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered strong convection is
noted along the monsoon trough from 08N-12N between 35W-41W.
Otherwise, scattered moderate moderate convection is noted within
200 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between the coast of Africa
to 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near
28N86W with a ridge axis extending westward across the northern
waters. A surface trough is in the SW Gulf from 23N97W to 19N93W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the SW Gulf, S of
21N between 91W-97W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen in the
eastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin with
moderate winds in the SW Gulf. Seas range 2-4 ft.

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to
moderate winds with slight seas across much of the area through
the upcoming week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each
evening in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula
due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
convection associated with the two tropical waves over the
Caribbean.

Isolated thunderstorms are noted across portions of the Greater
Antilles with showers moving across the Lesser Antilles.
Otherwise, strong to near gale-force winds prevail over the
central Caribbean and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted from the eastern-central Caribbean to the NW
Caribbean, in addition to the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate
winds are in the eastern basin. Seas range 4-9 ft with 11 ft
north of Colombia near the strongest winds.

Near gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela overnight, resulting in large seas in NE
swell across the waters S of 18N and W of 72W through Mon. Fresh
to strong trade winds will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean waters through the upcoming week. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse for the next several nights through the Windward
Passage. Winds and seas may increase over the Tropical N Atlantic
waters during the middle of the upcoming week as a tropical wave
crosses the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A relatively weak pressure pattern prevails across the
subtropical Atlantic waters, leading to gentle to moderate winds
across most of the area. A 1019 mb low is in the western Atlantic
near 29N73W with a surface trough extending along it from 31N70W
to 26N77W. Isolated showers are within the vicinity of the trough.
Two other troughs are analyzed in the central Atlantic: from
31N60W to 24N57W, and from 31N49W to 26N52W. Isolated showers are
near these troughs. Otherwise, high pressure spans across the
basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 30N67W. In the eastern
Atlantic, fresh to strong northerly winds are noted across the
Canary Islands. Seas range from 3-7 ft.

Weak low pressure centered near 29N73W will remain nearly
stationary well offshore of the NW Bahamas through Mon, then
dissipate by Mon night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
each night near the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the
Windward Passage. Winds and seas may increase E of 65W during the
middle and latter parts of the upcoming week as a tropical wave
crosses the region.

$$
AReinhart
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