[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
602 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near 10N28W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 NM of the
center of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive to
support additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while it moves
generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development
late this week. This low has a medium probability of tropical
cyclogenesis. Please see the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather
Outlook for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 28W south of 16N, moving W at 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
06N to 12N between 25W and 35W. Low pressure is along the wave
axis, where the wave intersects the monsoon trough. There is a
medium probability for the low to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Please see special features section above for more information.

A tropical wave axis is near 46W south of 19N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between
41W and 49W.

A tropical wave axis is near 64W south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm east of the wave
axis south of 13N.

A tropical wave axis is near 80W south of 19N, moving W at 10-15
kt. Scattered strong convection is noted south of 15N, between
78W and 85W, including portions of Central America from eastern
Honduras southward to Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 11N24W to 10N51W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N51W to 10N61W. Besides the convection
described above in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is noted near the coast of Africa, from 10N to 15N
east of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near
29N85W, with a ridge axis extending westward across the northern
waters. A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf of Mexico from
23N97W to the Bay of Campeche. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection is on either side of the trough axis. Gusty
winds and locally rough seas are possible in and near stronger
thunderstorms. Isolated moderate showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over portions of the central and eastern Gulf as well.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the SW Gulf east of the
trough axis, where there is a tighter pressure gradient between
the trough and high pressure center over the NE Gulf. Light to
gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the high pressure center.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to
moderate winds across much of the area through the middle of next
week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening in
the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to
local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
convection associated with the two tropical waves over the
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south-central
Caribbean through the middle of the upcoming week. Near gale-force
winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will
continue for the next several days. Winds and seas may increase
over the Tropical N Atlantic waters during the middle of the
upcoming week as a tropical wave crosses the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A relatively weak pressure pattern prevails across the
subtropical Atlantic waters, leading to gentle to moderate winds
across most of the area. A weak 1019 mb low pressure is meandering
near 29N73W with scattered showers and thunderstorms in its
vicinity. A 1021 mb high is near 27N63W. A surface trough extends
from 32N59W to 21N56W. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of
the trough.

The weak low pressure near 29N73W will remain nearly stationary
well offshore of the NW Bahamas through Mon, then dissipate by Mon
night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night near
the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage.
Winds and seas may increase E of 65W during the middle of the
upcoming week as a tropical wave crosses the region.

$$
AL
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