[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa along 19W,
from 19N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 13N between 15W-24W. A band of moderate to strong
convection is also present southwest of the wave from the
Equator extending north to 10N near the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are from 02N-06N between 36W-43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
present in the vicinity of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. The tropical wave is moving through a
transition area, from upper level anticyclonic wind flow that is
to the east of Hispaniola, toward upper level cyclonic wind flow
that covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W, to 12N33W to 08N50W. The ITCZ continues from
08N50W to 09N54W, then west of the tropical wave from 09N58W to
the coast of Brazil. Aside from the convection associated to the
tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
180 nm to the north and south of the monsoon trough, and
scattered moderate convection north of the ITCZ from 09N-13N
between 58W to 66W impacting the ABC islands in the southern
Caribbean Sea.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 27N85W and remains in
Control across the basin. A trough is observed in the Bay of
Campeche from 22N94W to 18N94W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted south of 22N to 18N and west of 90W.
This is enhancing an outflow boundary moving south to north near
24N. To the east, scattered showers are noted near the coast of
Louisiana and northern Florida.

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will allow for generally
light to gentle winds across the area through Wed. Stronger winds
are expected in the eastern Bay of Campeche and near the Yucatan
peninsula at night due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the
south-central Caribbean through Wed. Strongest winds will be
tonight and Sun as a tropical wave moves across the region.
Moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere.

An upper-level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near
35N60W southwestward across Jamaica to the border of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from Hispaniola westward. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate to locally strong covers the southeast between the
Lesser Antilles to 68W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is
also noted along the coast of Panam, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and
Honduras. ASCAT data indicate fresh to strong trades across the
south-central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south-central
Caribbean through Wed. Strongest winds will be tonight and Sun
as a tropical wave moves across the region. Moderate to fresh
winds are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 35N60W cyclonic circulation
Center to the Windward Passage. A 1019 mb surface low is noted
Near 28N72W with a surface trough extending from 30N71W to
24N76W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity
of the trough and from 26N-29N between 65W-70W. Elsewhere, a
1023 mb high pressure remains in control north of 20N.

On the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected across the
northern waters through Wed. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 23N from Great Bahama Bank to north of
Hispaniola.

$$
Torres
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