[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081707
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
107 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1705 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa along 19W,
from 19N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 13N between 15W-24W. A band of moderate to strong
convection is seen southwest of the wave from the Equator
extending north to 10N near the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 19N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
from 02N-06N between 36W-43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
present in the vicinity of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. The tropical wave is moving through a
transition area, from upper level anticyclonic wind flow that is
to the east of Hispaniola, toward upper level cyclonic wind flow
that covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W, to 12N33W to 08N50W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N50W to 09N54W, then west of the tropical wave
from 09N58W to the coast of Brazil. Aside from the convection
associated to the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 180 nm to the north and south of the monsoon
trough, and scattered moderate convection north of the ITCZ from
09N-13N between 58W to 66W impacting the ABC islands in the
southern Caribbean Sea.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 27N85W and remains in
control across the basin. A trough is observed in the Bay of
Campeche from 22N94W to 18N94W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted south of 22N to 18N and west of 90W. This
is enhancing an outflow boundary moving south to north near 24N.
To the east, scattered showers are noted near the coast of
Louisiana and northern Florida.

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will allow for generally
light to gentle winds across the area through Wed. Stronger winds
are expected in the eastern Bay of Campeche and near the Yucatan
peninsula at night due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 35N60W
southwestward across Jamaica to the border of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from Hispaniola westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to
locally strong covers the southeast between the Lesser Antilles to
68W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is also noted along the
coast of Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. ASCAT data
indicate fresh to strong trades across the south-central
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south-central
Caribbean through Wed. Strongest winds will be tonight and Sun
as a tropical wave moves across the region. Moderate to fresh
winds are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 35N60W cyclonic circulation
center to the Windward Passage. A 1019 mb surface low is noted
near 28N72W with a surface trough extending from 30N71W to 24N76W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the
trough and from 26N-29N between 65W-70W. Elsewhere, a 1023 mb high
pressure remains in control north of 20N.

On the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected across the
northern waters through Wed. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 23N from Great Bahama Bank to north of
Hispaniola.

$$
Torres
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