[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N13W, to 06N17W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from
04N22W to 01N34W to 02N45W to 03.5N52W. A second ITCZ passes
through 01S32W to 01S37W, to the Equator along 42W and along the
Equator to 47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 10N from 16W to the African coast. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between
22W and 37W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 02.5S to 07.5N between 38W and 56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An energetic upper level trough is moving across the southeastern
U.S. and extends SW across the central Gulf of Mexico to northern
Mexico. The trough is supporting a cold front, that extends from
the Florida Big Bend to near 24N90W to the coast of Mexico near
22N98W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to shift
eastward, ahead of the front, and extend from just offshore of the
NE coast of the Yucatan the to W coast of Florida. Nocturnal
convection across eastern Mexico is shifting eastward into the
Mexican coastal waters from 23N to the central Bay of Campeche.
Strong thunderstorms earlier tonight produced a broad area of
strong to neargale force winds across central and west central
portions of the Gulf and kicked seas up to 11 ft in NE swell.
Those seas are moving SW and into the SW Gulf this morning and are
not expected to subside below 8 ft before late morning.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the southeast Gulf
of Mexico this morning, ahead of the cold front. The front will
continue to move SE and reach from near Naples, Florida to
Tuxpan, Mexico this afternoon, then reach W Cuba to the northern
Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning, where it will begin to stall and
dissipate through Sat. High pressure will settle into the NE Gulf
behind the front Fri night through early next week. Smoke due to
agricultural fires over southern Mexico will persist over the far
southwest Gulf for the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure aloft and stable atmospheric conditions prevail
across the eastern Caribbean E of 70W, where low clouds and
shallow trade wind showers are seen in satellite imagery.
Tradewinds across the basin have veered to east-southeast
overnight across eastern portions, and southeast to southwinds
across NW portions, while strong easterly trades prevail across
south-central portions.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will shift NE through
Fri, allowing for diminished tradewinds across the E and central
Caribbean from Fri into early next week. This will produce moderate
winds and seas across most of the basin. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Central America will continue to reduce visibility over
the western Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches across the Atlantic from 31N46W to 24N60W
then continues as a shear line to 24N76W. Broken multi-layered
clouds with scattered embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms
are seen within 240 nm N of the front to the east of 62W A cold
front approaching the SE coast of the U.S. is combining with high
pressure over the NW Atlantic to produce fresh to strong SE to S
winds across the waters NE through N of the Bahamas. Scattered
strong thunderstorms in lines are occurring over the waters east
of Florida to the N of 27N and W of 77.5W.

The current shearline will dissipate gradually through this
afternoon. This next cold front will move off the southeastern
U.S. coast and into the NW forecast waters later today, with the
fresh to strong southerly winds and active weather continuing from
the NW Bahamas to offshore of northeast Florida. The front will
continue east and reach from Bermuda to the south central Bahamas
Sat, before weakening and becoming stationary from near 27N65W to
the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba on Sun. Weak high pressure
will settle across the northern waters Mon ahead of the next front
to exit the SE U.S.

$$
Stripling
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