[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300630
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, to 06N16W, 06N20W, and to 05N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N21W, to 03N23W, 01N34W, 02N45W, and to 03N50W.
A second ITCZ passes through 01S32W to 01S37W, to the Equator
along 42W and along the Equator to 47W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 03N to 07N
between 42W and 49W, and from 02S to 03N between 34W and 48W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 05N to 07N between
10W and 15W, and from 06N southward between 16W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through the eastern half of the
U.S.A., and through the central Gulf of Mexico. The trough is
supporting a cold front, that is moving through the NE corner of
the Gulf, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, and beyond the
NW corner of the Gulf, into the Deep South of Texas. A squall
line and an outflow boundary are about 450 nm to the
east-southeast of the cold front. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong from 27N northward from 84W eastward and into
parts of northern Florida. Scattered strong is from 22N to 24N
between 86W and 88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 20N to 24N from 96W westward.

Scattered thunderstorms, some strong, will continue in the
northeast Gulf of Mexico tonight. The precipitation will be in
advance of a cold front, that is moving across the NW Gulf of
Mexico. The front will reach from near Tampa Florida to near
Tampico Mexico early on Thursday. The front will stall from the
Straits of Florida to near Veracruz Mexico early on Friday. The
front will dissipate through Saturday. High pressure will settle
into the NE Gulf, behind the front, from Friday night through early
next week. Smoke due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico will
persist in the far southwest Gulf into the middle of the next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow across
the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water
vapor imagery from 71W eastward. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible, in broken low level clouds, to the east of the line
that extends from NW Cuba to the Peninsula de la Guajira of N
Colombia.

High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will shift
northeastward through Friday. The movement of the area of high
pressure will allow for diminished trade winds in the eastern
and central sections of the Caribbean Sea, from Friday into
early next week. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America
will continue to reduce the visibility in the western Gulf of
Honduras. Some improvement of these conditions may occur by the end
of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N48W to 24N60W. A shear line
continues from 24N60W to 24N76W.  Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible, in broken low level clouds, from 20N northward from
44W westward. Upper level W and SW wind flow is moving across
the area of the frontal boundary.

The current frontal boundary will dissipate gradually through
Thursday. Another cold front will move off the southeastern
coast of the U.S.A., into the NW forecast waters on Thursday.
The second cold front will be preceded by fresh to strong
southerly winds and active weather, beginning tonight
off northeast Florida and north of Grand Bahama. The second cold
front will continue to move eastward and reach from Bermuda to the
southern Bahamas on Saturday. The second front will become a
weakening stationary, from near 27N65W to the southern Bahamas and
to eastern Cuba, on Sunday.

$$
mt
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