[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02S35W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 05S-06N between 22W-36W, and from 03S-07N between
42W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 26/1500 UTC, a cold front extends across the basin from
Tampa Bay Florida to 25N90W to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W.
Fresh N to NE winds are behind the front. A pre-frontal trough is
over Florida from Stuart to Ft. Myers to 25N84W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is along the pre-frontal trough and
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 23N-27N between South
Florida and 90W. Another trough is producing scattered showers
over the Bay of Campeche. Drier air prevails behind the cold
front. A 1022 mb high centered near Dallas Texas is building
ridging over the Gulf behind the front.

The cold front will move slowly southward across the western Gulf
while moving SE across the eastern Gulf through tonight, then
exit the area on Mon morning. Another cold front will move into
the northern Gulf Wed afternoon and reach from the Florida Big
Bend to 25N90W to northeastern Mexico early Thu. The western
part of the front will become stationary and weaken through late
Thu night, while the rest of the front will weaken as it exits
the SE Gulf Fri. Weak high pressure will build across the area
in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging prevails across the basin, leading to
subsidence and dry air across much of the area. Some scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are seen between Cuba and the
Cayman Islands, due to the influence of a frontal system to the
north of the area, over Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. The
latest ASCAT pass shows strong trades in the south-central
Caribbean. Fresh trades are elsewhere over the eastern and
central Caribbean, east of 79W and south of 18N. Fresh SE winds
are in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are seen
elsewhere in the western Caribbean.

High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW
Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean through Tue before weakening. Strong
east to southeast winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of
Honduras this weekend. A weak cold front will sink across W Cuba
and the Yucatan Channel Mon through Mon night before dissipating
Tue. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America could
reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras for the next several
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 26/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N78W to Cape
Canaveral Florida to Tampa Bay Florida. A pre-frontal trough is
from 28N79W across Florida to 25N84W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen within 270 nm ahead of the
cold front, including waters north of 23.5N and west of 73W.
This includes South Florida and the northwest Bahamas. Fresh W
winds are behind the front north of 29N, with moderate wind
speeds elsewhere across the west Atlantic. Farther east,
ridging prevails across the remainder of the Atlantic,
anchored by a 1025 mb high near 30N44W. Gentle winds are near
the east-west oriented surface ridge axis, which extends along
28/29N between 37W-70W. Fresh trades are in the tropics, from
05N-21N, between 39W-65W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front from 32N78W to
Tampa Bay will move SE across the offshore waters and reach
from 31N70W to the coast of NW Cuba Mon morning before stalling
and dissipating from 28N65W to Cuba Tue morning. High pressure
behind the front will slide eastward along 31N. Yet another cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and to the
forecast waters Wed night into Thu, preceded by fresh to strong
southerly winds.

$$
Hagen
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