[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2300 UTC Sat Apr 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N19W to 01N35W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06S-07N between 14W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Mississippi to S Texas. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 28N85W to 24.5N90W to 24N98W. A thin line of
cloudiness and possible isolated showers is present within 15 nm
E of the pre- frontal trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 25N- 27N between the west coast of
Florida and 84W. Isolated showers extend southwestward from that
area of convection to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong
winds prevail N of the front, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the western Gulf,
and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf.

The cold front will move across the northern Gulf tonight, then
reach from near Tampa Florida to the SW Gulf on Sun. The front
will move SE of the area into the NW Caribbean on Mon with high
pressure building in it wake. Another cold front will move into
the northern Gulf Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean as
well as over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere except for the NW Caribbean where gentle winds
prevail. Isolated to scattered light showers are embedded within
the tradewind flow. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south
central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW
Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean through Tue before weakening. Strong east
to southeast winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras
this weekend. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America
could reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras for the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N72W to the coast of Central
Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection if
noted ovcer the discussion area in the vicinity of this trough.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the western part of the
discussion area. Farther east, surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high near
30N43W. Moderate to fresh tradewinds, and seas in the 6-8 ft
range, prevail across the tropical Atlantic S of 20N. Isolated
showers are embedded within this tradewind flow. Light to gentle
winds, and seas in the 4-6 ft range, prevail across the
remainder of the forecast waters.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night and cross
the offshore waters N of 22N Mon through Tue night. The front is
expected to stall across the central Bahamas Wed as high
pressure slides eastward along 31N. Yet another cold front will
move off the SE U.S. coast Wed night into Thu preceded by fresh
to strong southerly winds along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

$$
AL/Hagen
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