[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N19W to 01N34W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06S-06N between 14W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 25/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from SE Louisiana near
29.5N91W to 28N94W to south Texas near 27N97.5W to 27N100W. A
pre-frontal trough at 1500 UTC extends from 29N85W to 26N90W to
25N98W to 26N103W. A thin line of cloudiness and possible
isolated showers is present within 15 nm either side of the
pre-frontal trough. The atmosphere is much more moist out ahead
of the pre-frontal trough, over the SE Gulf of Mexico and South
Florida. Energetic SW flow aloft is supporting scattered strong
convection from 25N-27N between the west coast of Florida and
84.5W. Scattered showers extend southwestward from that area of
convection to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Drier air prevails north
and west of the pre-frontal trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows
fresh SE winds in the Yucatan Channel, decreasing to gentle,
about 30 nm north of the Yucatan Channel. Outside of the
convection, gentle winds prevail over the eastern Gulf. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the basin.

Strong thunderstorms over the E Gulf of Mexico off the coast of
southern and central Florida may produce gusty winds and locally
higher seas today. The cold front over the NW Gulf will move
across the northern Gulf through tonight, then reach from near
Tampa Florida to the SW Gulf on Sun. This front will move SE and
into the NW Caribbean on Mon as a high pressure ridge passes
eastward across the Gulf early next week. Another cold front
will move into the northern Gulf Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-to upper-level ridging is leading to dry conditions across
most of the Caribbean basin with a few exceptions. Isolated to
scattered light showers are seen over portions of the NE
Caribbean, including near Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate
convection is seen in the far SW Caribbean within 45 nm of the
coast of western Panama and southern Costa Rica. The latest
ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across most of the basin, except
strong trades are seen in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf
of Honduras.

High pressure extending from the central Atlantic to the NW
Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean through Tue before weakening. Strong east
to southeast winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras
this weekend. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America
could reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras for the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Over the western Atlantic, abundant moisture seen on TPW
imagery along with energetic SW flow aloft is leading to
scattered moderate rainshowers and isolated strong tstorms
inside an area bounded by the points 29N81W to 32N74W to
32N63W to 23N80W to 29N81W. The latest ASCAT data suggests
there is a surface trough in this area from 31N72W to
28N76W to 26N80W, which is helping to enhance the showers.
Wind speeds of 10-15 kt generally prevail across this
region, outside of the stronger showers and tstorms. Farther
east, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high near 39N38W. The latest
ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic
from 05N-20N, west of 40W.

For the forecast west of 65W, a front just north of the area,
off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, will be responsible
for fresh to strong south to southwest winds today north of 29N
west of 77W. These winds will diminish tonight. Scattered
tstorms, some possibly strong, well ahead of the front, may
produce gusty winds and locally higher seas offshore of Florida
through this evening. Another cold front will move off the SE
U.S. coast Sun night and cross the offshore waters N of 22N Mon
through Tue night. The front is expected to stall across the
central Bahamas Wed as high pressure slides eastward along 31N.
Yet another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Wed
night into Thu preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds
along with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

$$
Hagen
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