[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N16W, to 04N26W. The ITCZ continues from
04N26W, to 04N31W, 01N35W, and to 01N43W. A surface trough is
along 03N49W 01N47W, to 01S43W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is within 180 nm on the northern side of the
monsoon trough and the ITCZ, between 15W and 32W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and water vapor satellite imagery,
show SW to W wind flow across the Gulf of Mexico.

A low pressure center, and accompanying frontal boundaries, are
inland, from Oklahoma to Texas and Louisiana. Southerly wind
flow is apparent in the Gulf of Mexico. The isobaric pattern is
consistent with the Gulf of Mexico preparing to receive a
frontal boundary in the area.

A developing low pressure system in the U.S.A. southern plains
will pull fresh to strong SE to S winds across the basin tonight
and Thursday. The low pressure center will drag a cold front
across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night and Friday.
A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Friday night, and then extend from South Florida to the SW Gulf
of Mexico on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb shows that a ridge extends from a
southern Yucatan Peninsula anticyclonic circulation center, to a
15N70W anticyclonic circulation center, beyond Trinidad in the
SE Caribbean Sea. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans
the entire area. Comparativel drier air is apparent in water
vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are possible, in broken low level clouds, to the
east of the line that runs from 21N82W 17N82W 13N74W, and from
11N to 16N from 79W westward.

Strong E to SE winds will pulse at night, in the Gulf of
Honduras, through Saturday night, in response to low pressure
passing through the SE United States. A ridge across the western
Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the
S central Caribbean Sea through Sunday. Moderate to fresh trade
winds are expected elsewhere, from Thursday through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The first cold front passes through 32N56W to 28N60W, 23N70W, to
central Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 250 nm to the east of the first cold
front from 28N northward.

The second cold front is within 250 nm to the northwest of the
first front on the northeasternmost end of the front near that
is near 32N62W, and within 400 nm to the northwest of the part
of the first front that is near 27N80W at the coast of Florida.
High level clouds cover the area that is from 24N northward from
the first front northwestward. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent with the second cold front.

A far eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 34N21W to
30N23W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 26N northward
from 25W eastward.

The current first cold front will push SE, slowly, and it will
dissipate through Thursday. Another cold front will move off the
SE U.S.A. coast, from Friday through Saturday morning.
Strong to near gale-force S to SW winds are expected ahead of
the second front, N of the Bahamas, from Thursday through
Friday. A third and different cold front will move off the coast
of northern Florida late on Saturday night, and then the front
will extend from Bermuda to S Florida on Sunday.

$$
mt
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