[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to
02N30W, 01N40W, toward the Equator along 50W, close to the coast
of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 04N
southward, between 23W and 27W, and from 04N southward between
32W and 37W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 07N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through NE Texas and E Texas, into SW
Louisiana. A cold front is moving through the central sections
of Georgia, and the southern sections of Alabama and Mississippi.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W.

A stationary front passes through the NW Bahamas, across the
northern Florida Keys, into the central Gulf of Mexico. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery.

The current Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida Keys stationary front will
drift southward and dissipate overnight. A developing low
pressure system in the southern U.S.A. plains will strengthen
southerly winds across the basin on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. The low pressure center  will drag a cold front across
the northern Gulf of Mexico from Thursday through Friday.
A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Friday night. The second cold front will extend from southern
Florida to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge,
from 14N northward. An upper level trough passes across the
central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, to the
coast of Venezuela along 68W. Comparatively drier air is
apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea.
The 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, ending at 22/0000 UTC,
is: 0.08 in Guadeloupe.

E to SE winds will increase to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula
on Wednesday night, and those wind speeds will continue through
Friday. A cold front will be moving across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the south
central Caribbean Sea from Wednesday night through Sunday.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere from
Thursday through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center
that is near 35N59W, through 30N66W, to 28N70W, to the NW
Bahamas, and beyond the northern Florida Keys, into the central
Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
240 nm to the SSE of the low pressure center and front, from 28N
northward. The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches, ending at
22/0000 UTC, is: 0.39 in Bermuda.

A cold front extends from a 1022 mb low pressure center that is
near 32N31W, to 28N41W. A surface trough is along 35N24W to
30N27W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 26N
northward between 23W and 41W.

The current Atlantic Ocean stationary front will drift SE on
Wednesday, then stall and dissipate through Thursday. Fresh to
strong SW winds will precede the front overnight. A cold front
will move eastward, north of 30N, from Friday through Saturday
morning. Strong S to SW winds are expected in advance of this
front, N of the Bahamas, on Thursday and Thursday night. A
second cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida
late on Saturday night. The second cold front will extend from
Bermuda to southern Florida on Sunday.

$$
mt
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