[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2257 UTC Tue Apr 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwestward from the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N19W where it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 06N between
12W and 15W and from 00N to 05N between 44W and 48W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 00N to
03N between 23W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21/2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from the southern
tip of Florida near 25N81W to the central Gulf of Mexico near
24N90W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1018
mb high is centered over S Mississippi near 31N90W. 5-15 kt
E winds are occurring over the N Gulf. Dense smoke from
agricultural fires covers the SW Gulf S of 24N.

The front should begin moving east of the area tonight. The next
cold front will approach the NW Gulf Thu morning. Fresh to
strong SE to S winds are forecast to develop ahead of the front
over the western half of the Gulf tonight and Wed. The front will
reach from near Pensacola Florida to near 28N91W by Thu night,
then pass to the E of the basin by Fri night. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms may accompany this front. Yet another cold
front is expected to emerge off the Texas coast Fri night and
push SE to reach from S Florida to the SW Gulf by Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends from near 25N60W to E Cuba. A 1011 mb
low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the low. Dense smoke from
agricultural fires covers the Gulf of Honduras. Scatterometer
data shows moderate to fresh trade winds across E and central
Caribbean east of 78W. Mainly fresh E to SE trade winds are in
the Gulf of Honduras and in the S-central Caribbean. Moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. While most of the basin is dry due to
strong subsidence typical of April, scattered showers are present
over the NE Caribbean.

The fresh trade winds over the S central Caribbean and the Gulf
of Honduras will increase to strong speeds at night through Sat
night as strong high pres builds north of the area. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate trade winds will increase to moderate to fresh
speeds beginning Thu and continue through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 21/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the W Atlantic from
31N62W to 29N67W where it transitions to a stationary front. The
stationary front continues to the S tip of Florida near 25N80W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180
nm south of the front east of 70W. A 1024 mb high is centered
over the central Atlantic near 28N42W. Scatterometer data shows
strong SW winds east of the front and north of 27N. Fresh
NW to N winds are located west of the front to near 72W.

The front will push southeastward over the SE Bahamas and
E Cuba early Wed, then weaken as it moves east of the forecast
waters Wed night. Fresh to strong SW winds will precede the front
N of 29N tonight and Wed. Another cold front will just reach the
far NW waters Fri, then retreat north Fri night. Strong to near
gale force S to SW winds preceding this front are expected over
the waters northwest of the Bahamas Thu and Thu night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front. Yet another
cold front will enter the waters northwest of the Bahamas Sun.

$$
Landsea/Formosa/McElroy
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