[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2041 UTC Fri Apr 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N19W to 02N43W. A surface trough extends from
13N48W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N-06N and east of 30W. Another area of scattered moderate
convection prevails near the ITCZ and surface trough south of 06N
and west of 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends just north of the area across the SE
United States. A diurnally driven surface trough has shifted off
the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula. A surface trough
extends from 24N98W to 21N96W. Gentle to moderate southeasterly
winds prevail across the area. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over
the western Gulf, and 2-4 ft over the eastern Gulf. No
significant convection is noted at this time.

The ridge will dominate most of the Gulf waters through the
weekend. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf early Sat,
then weaken and lift northward Sat night ahead of another cold
front that is expected to reach the Texas coast Sun night. Smoke
from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras may
reduce visibility in the southern Gulf west of 85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of fresh to strong east winds is noted over the south
central Caribbean, mainly north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the
south central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the
central Caribbean and eastern Caribbean. Seas in the 2-4 ft range
prevail over the western Caribbean. No significant convection is
noted, only quick- moving scattered showers within the moderate
trades.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds near Colombia through Sun. Fresh to strong winds
are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through
Tue. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may
reduce visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of
Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N56W to 25N72W, then becomes
stationary through 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the front, with highest concentration mainly north of
29N. To the east, a 1022 mb surface high is centered near
27N39W. A surface trough extends from 13N48W to 03N48W. Fresh to
strong winds prevail N of the front, with seas in the 7-9 ft
range. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with seas in
the 4-7 ft range. The one exception is east of the surface trough
where fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 7-8 ft prevail.

The cold front will stall and weaken east of the Bahamas tonight.
Fresh to strong NE winds north of the boundary will diminish
through tonight. A second cold front will move across the
northern waters Sat night and Sun, then stall and weaken Sun
night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front.
The next cold front will move into the northern waters by Mon
night.

$$
AL/ERA
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