[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 04N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N22W to 01N42W. A surface trough extends from
11N44W to 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N-05N and east of 30W. Another area of scattered moderate
convection prevails near the ITCZ and surface trough south of
10N and west of 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin in the wake of a
frontal boundary that has dissipated earlier this morning. A
surface trough extends from 24N98W to 21N96W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southeasterly winds
across the area. No significant convection is noted at this time.

The ridge will dominate most of the Gulf waters through the
weekend. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf early Sat,
then weaken and lift northward Sat night ahead of another cold
front that is expected to reach the Texas coast Sun night. Smoke
from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras may
reduce visibility in the southern Gulf west of 85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air aloft prevails across the basin, as noted in water vapor
imagery. With this, no significant convection is noted, only
quick-moving scattered showers within the moderate trades. An
area of fresh to strong east winds is noted in scatterometer
data over the south central Caribbean, mainly north of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds near Colombia through Sun. Fresh to strong winds
are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through
Tue. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may
reduce visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of
Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 25N76W, then becomes
stationary through 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the front, with highest concentration mainly north
of 29N. To the east, a 1025 mb surface high is centered near
28N41W. A surface trough extends across the far east Atlantic
from 31N14W to 25N24W.

The cold front will stall and weaken east of the Bahamas later
today. Fresh to strong NE winds north of the boundary will
diminish through tonight. A second cold front will move across
the northern waters Sat night and Sun, then stall and weaken Sun
night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the
front. The next cold front will move into the northern waters by
Mon night.

$$
ERA
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