[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Apr 16 00:47:07 CDT 2020


AXNT20 KNHC 160547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W,
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03N36W, 04N39W, and
4N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from the ITCZ to 10N between 20W and 45W, and from 08N
southward between 45W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N73W, to
28N82W in interior sections of Florida. The front becomes
stationary at 28N82W, and it continues into the central Gulf of
Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 96W from 18N to 19N, and
then northwestward into interior sections of Mexico.
Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible to the south of the line
that runs from the Florida Big Bend to the coast of Mexico near
23N98W.

A surface ridge passes through the border of Texas and
Louisiana, southwestward into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W.

The current frontal boundary will drift little and stall through
Thursday. The frontal boundary will dissipate in the southeast
and south central Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. The next
cold front will enter the northern Gulf of Mexico from Friday
night into Saturday. It will stall, and move northward on
Saturday night, in advance of yet another cold front, that will
be approaching the Texas coast by late Sunday. Smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue
to reduce the visibility at times in the southwest and south
central Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center on top of
Guatemala. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly
all of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough passes across
the areas of Dominica and Martinique, to the coast of Venezuela
along 65W. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor
imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible in areas of broken low
level clouds, to the east and northeast of the line that runs
from 20N84W to the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain pulses
of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia through
Friday night. Expect fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
Honduras at night during the upcoming weekend. Smoke from inland
agricultural fires will continue to reduce the visibility off
the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N73W, to
28N82W in interior sections of Florida. The front becomes
stationary at 28N82W, and it continues into the central Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to
the north of the line that runs from 25N80W to 25N70W beyond
30N60W.

A cold front is in the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean,
passing through 32N15W, to 28N20W, 26N30W, and to 28N38W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N northward from
50W eastward.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front that is reaching
Florida will reach from Bermuda to south Florida by late
Thursday, and then move to the east of the area on Friday. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front on
Thursday and Thursday night. A ridge will dominate the region in
the wake of the front. Expect fresh to occasionally strong
southerly winds to the north of 27N on Saturday and Saturday
night, in advance of the next cold front. Another cold front
should reach the area late on Monday.

$$
mt
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